Dr. Danny Blair

PARC-MB Hydro Climate Change Research Professor

Danny Blair is Director of the University of Winnipeg’s Climate Studies Centre; this centre is one of several nodes within the university’s Global College and Dialogue Centre, established in 2004. He is an Associate Professor in the Department of Geography, and on July 1, 2004 was appointed as the PARC-MB Hydro Climate Change Research Professor. Dr. Blair’s teaching portfolio includes a variety of courses related to climatology, climate change, meteorology, and natural hazards. His research program is largely concerned with climate variability and climate change affecting the Canadian Prairie Provinces and, in particular, the synoptic characteristics of variability and change. With a variety of collaborators, he is also examining the use of butterflies to monitor climate change in eastern Manitoba, the utility of precipitation isotopes to characterize the atmospheric circulation, the effect of climate variability and change on winter road operations in Manitoba, the use of tree-rings to reconstruct the hydroclimate of the Slave River Delta region, and methods of classifying atmospheric patterns. He received his B.Sc. and M.Sc. degrees from the University of Regina, and his Ph.D. from the Department of Geography at the University of Manitoba (1989). He joined the University of Winnipeg in 1987, and was Geography’s Chair for the period of 1999-2004. He is an Adjunct Professor at the University of Manitoba and is a member of several graduate thesis committees. He is Co-Chair of the Climate Change Connection, Manitoba’s climate change public education and outreach hub, and is a frequent contributor to local and national media reports on climate change and hazards.

The Research Program

“Synoptic Climatology of Climate Variability and Change in the Western Canadian Interior”

The goal of the research program is to improve our understanding of the synoptic climatology of climatic variability in the western Canadian interior in support of planning and policy for the adaptation of energy and renewable resource industries as well as other industries and decision-makers to climate change. Working closely with students and other PARC researchers, the principal scientific objectives are to assess the frequency, intensity, duration and spatial characteristics of climate anomalies affecting the western Canadian interior, with emphasis on hydroclimate anomalies; to improve our understanding of the potential impacts of global warming on the hydrological resources of the western interior; and to interpret and deliver the research results for application by resource managers and policy analysts. The research will concentrate on the following areas of interest:

1. Synoptic Climatology: The development of a comprehensive synoptic climatology of climate anomalies affecting the region, especially for climate anomalies that affect the timing and amount of precipitation falling within the western interior and its surface-water source regions to the west and south. These analyses will necessarily be restricted to the instrumental period, particularly the last 50 years, or so, for which there are reliable observations of upper-atmospheric circulations.

2. Teleconnections: Since large-scale, persistent hydroclimate anomalies are of particular interest, it is important that the impact of teleconnections on the climate of the study region be assessed in detail. To this end, using the instrumental record, the project will fully explore the regional impacts of El Niño and ENSO, the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern, among others.

3. Proxy Reconstructions: Given that the long-term risk of hydroclimate anomalies is the central theme of the project as a whole, it is important that the climate of the pre-instrumental period be included in the analyses. Thus, a variety of proxy sources of climate information, including historical and dendroclimatological data, will be used to investigate the frequency, timing, duration and associated drivers for hydroclimate anomalies and teleconnections of at least the last few hundred years.

4. Impact of Global Warming: The output of several Global Climate Models (GCMs) will be used to assess the ways in which the synoptic climatology of the region is likely to change. Since the reliability of precipitation-related projections made by these models is less than desired, this project will use a synoptic approach to evaluate the ways in which the precipitation and hydrological regime of the region is likely to change throughout this century. That is, the synoptic activity as projected by the models will be assessed, and our current understanding of the precipitation characteristics of synoptic systems will be used to synthesize a precipitation series for the future. This will necessarily involve a Monte Carlo approach, to accommodate the relatively large amount of variance within the synoptic-precipitation relationship.

5. Risk Assessment: In the end, the overall utility of the project for managers and planners involved in the hydrological resources of the region will largely be determined by its assessment of the risk of significant hydroclimatological anomalies associated with global warming. Consequently, in conjunction with analyses and tools produced by students and other PARC-affiliated researchers, the project will produce an assessment of the risk of significant anomalies in the coming decades. In so doing, stakeholders will be provided with the opportunity to optimize their use of the region’s hydrological resources, by minimizing risk, maximizing opportunities and making informed and timely adjustments, as needed.

For more information on Dr. Blair visit: http://dannyblair.uwinnipeg.ca