Agriculture Research Projects

An understanding of adaptation of plant and animal systems in response to changes in climate will help to reduce the risk involved in livestock production. Climate change will affect a large array of systems. Forage and livestock production will not be excluded from the impact of climate change. The purpose of this study was to understand the concept of adaptation and to integrate adaptive management strategies within the beef industry. A case study was undertaken at three locations to determine the impact of climate change as predicted by the CGCM1 model on livestock production. Three adaptation strategies were devised namely an early turnout date, intensive early season grazing and an extended grazing season. These were applied to simulation for the years 2051-2090. production were complex and results were variable for each site. The effects were more prominent at Saskatoon than Melfort and Swift Current, reflecting strong regional specificity and variability.

The adaptation strategies were more successful for RWR/ALF than for CWG pasture at Melfort and Swift Current while CWG appeared to be more successful at Saskatoon. Indeed, the results suggest that productivity of beef cattle grazing RWR/ALF pastures at Melfort and Swift Current could be enhanced with climate change. However, Russian wild ryegrass is slow and difficult to establish. Therefore one of the recommendations from this report calls for a greater research effort into the establishment problems of this grass. The results should only be considered as only an example of the possible responses to climate change.

A climate change scenario was created using the Canadian Climate Change model (GCM1) and integrated into the GrassGro Decision Support System (DSS). Three adaptation strategies were tested in comparison to a baseline simulation (1961-1990) for 2 pasture associations, Russian wildrye/alfalfa (RWR/ALF) and Crested Wheatgrass (CWG) at three locations Melfort, Saskatoon, Swift Current, Saskatchewan. Climate change predictions were simulated for the years 2051-2080. The effects of climate change on livestock.

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The dynamics of competition between crops and weeds are affected by environmental conditions, and have been shown to change with CO2 enrichment. Differential responses of C3 and C4 plants to elevated CO2 and temperature may cause shifts in their competitive interactions. There is a need to evaluate the effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on crop/weed competition and herbicide efficacy to develop strategies for agriculture in the face of climate change. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on the efficacy of commonly used herbicides and on crop/weed competition. Specifically, the objectives were to:

1) determine the effects of elevated CO2 on the efficacy of herbicides in controlling wild oats, Canada thistle, redroot pigweed, green foxtail, lambsquarters, kochia and common groundsel, 

2) study herbicide efficacy at ambient and elevated CO2 levels on wild oats and green foxtail grown in competition with barley,

3) develop a CO2 dose response curve that will be used to establish a timeline of change in herbicide efficacy by taking into account current rates of change in atmospheric CO2,

4) study the interactive effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on herbicide efficacy in wild oats,

5) conduct an economic analysis to provide preliminary monetary values of the effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on weed/crop competition and herbicide efficacy.

We screened several herbicide/weed combinations and selected crops for effects of elevated CO2 using both greenhouse-based and growth-chamber based gas exposure systems. We found that responses of weeds and crops to increasing CO2 levels were species-specific. Herbicide efficacy can be negatively affected by elevated CO2 and effects were dependent on the mode of action of herbicides, on weed species and on competition. While double-ambient CO2 caused a decrease of 57% in efficacy of the herbicide Fusion applied to wild oats (C3), no effects of elevated CO2 were found when the herbicide was applied to green foxtail (C4). CO2-related reduction in efficacy of Round-up Transorb applied to Canada thistle was reversed when weeds were grown in competition with canola. Dose response experiments showed that efficacy of certain herbicides could be adversely affected at CO2 levels approximately 160 ppm above ambient. Based on these findings, an experiment was designed to study CO2/temperature interactions on growth of wild oats and herbicide efficacy using either ambient levels of CO2 or ambient + 160 ppm and daytime temperature of either 23, 26 or 29oC. Daytime temperatures above 23oC decreased growth both in control and herbicide-treated plants. Increasing daytime temperature from 23 to 29oC caused decreased efficacy in the herbicides Fusion and Liberty but not in Assert 300. Decreases in efficacy were greatest at ambient CO2 for Fusion and greatest at ambient + 160 ppm CO2 in Liberty. While analysis of variance did not detect a significant interaction between CO2 and temperature, both elevated CO2 and temperature caused decreased efficacy of the herbicide Liberty on wild oats.

The economic analysis performed using plant growth and herbicide efficacy changes suggested that potential monetary losses due to CO2-induced decreases in herbicide efficacy can be partially or totally overcome by increases in crop yields caused by elevated CO2. Nonetheless, the results also suggest that weed control will be crucial in realizing potential increases in economic yield of crops as atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase. Since yields were not measured directly in this study, several assumptions were made to estimate the expected changes in yields that may occur as a result of the changes in CO2 levels and herbicide efficacies. The changes in biomass caused by increased levels of CO2 were translated into expected changes in yields using three different case scenarios. Case one assumed that yield increases were directly proportional to the biomass increases that occurred. Case two assumed that the increases in yields were half of the increase in biomass. Case three assumed that yields did not increase as biomass levels increased. Further studies on the effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on crop yields and herbicide efficacy are required to diminish the uncertainties in the economic analysis. If effects of climate change on crop/weed competition and herbicide efficacy are common, they will have a significant impact on agriculture.

It was concluded that: 

1) The efficacy of herbicides either decreased, increased or did not change when herbicides were applied to weeds grown at elevated CO2.

2) Effects of elevated CO2 on herbicide efficacy may change when weeds are grown in competition with crops.

3) Herbicide efficacy changes were only found to occur at 160 ppm above ambient levels of CO2. According to the current rate of change in atmospheric concentrations of CO2, this corresponds to approximately 50 years from present.

4) Elevated temperature tended to decrease herbicide efficacy and the effects of temperature and CO2 can be additive.

5) The economic analysis performed using plant growth and herbicide efficacy changes suggest that potential monetary losses due to decreased herbicide efficacy can be partially or totally overcome by increases in crop yields caused by elevated CO2. Nonetheless, the results also suggest that weed control will be crucial in realizing potential increases in economic yield of crops as atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase.

6) In this study, most of the data used to produce the economic analysis were extrapolations from short-term screening experiments and several assumptions needed to be made. Further studies on the effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on crop yields and herbicide efficacy are required to diminish the uncertainties in the economic analysis.

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The agriculture and agri-food sector of the Canadian economy is a significant user of non-renewable energy both as direct energy (diesel, gasoline) and indirect energy (fertilizer). Direct on-farm energy expenditure for mechanical power accounts for over $1 billion, or about 10% of total farm operating cost in the three Prairie Provinces. Gasoline, diesel and other fuels met over 70% of this requirement; electricity and natural gas constituting the remainder. Primary agriculture production also requires indirect energy embodied in machinery, fertilizer and pesticides. Nitrogen fertilizer can account for up to 70% of the energy used in crop production.

The types of crops produced and the amount of crop inputs will change in response to changes in climate and changes in the relative cost of inputs as they are affected by GHG reduction policies and climate adaptation strategies in other sectors. This project looked at two scenarios; a crop diversification scenario and a nitrogen use scenario to determine the impact on energy use of these possible reactions to climate change.

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“Since the settlement of the prairies in the 19th and early 20th centuries, land use and farming practices have evolved to match the various climates and soil types on the prairies and adapted to changing markets, technology and transportation systems. The abandonment of farms in the Special Areas of Alberta during the early 1920s and southwestern Saskatchewan in the 1930s, provides evidence of these adjustment processes. More recently, since the 1980s, there has been a reduction in summerfallow and an expansion of crop varieties, particularly in areas of higher moisture” (PFRA, 2000).

This statement from the Prairie Agricultural Landscapes (PAL) report by PFRA reinforces the need for continued study on the impact of climate change on agricultural systems. Beside the social and economic factors, soil, landform, vegetation and climatic factors contribute greatly to the limitation of agricultural systems to change (Dumanski and Kirkwood, 1988; Huffman et al, 1993).There has been much discussion of the potential for climate change as the result of global warming. A study by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) a Global Agro-ecological Assessment for Agriculture in the 21st Century suggests that climate change will create varying impacts on crop production. Developed countries will gain substantial potential,with developing countries losing potential (Fischer et al, 2001). A more specific report on Adaptation of Agricultural Production to Climate change in Atlantic Canada suggests significant shifts away from small grain cereals to high energy and high protein crops (corn and soybeans) which adapt better to warmer climates (Bootsma et al, 2001). On the Prairies, temperature increase estimates range from 1 to 5 degrees Celsius and there will be less water supply, particularly in western Canada, due to shrinking glaciers in the Rocky Mountains (Schindler, 2001).

The objective of this study is to develop a process to evaluate climate change impacts on agricultural resources of the Prairies and demonstrate the process using an accepted climate change scenario. Central to this process is the Land Suitability Rating System (LSRS) that was developed by agricultural experts to evaluate the potential of soils, landscapes and climate to sustainably produce crops. The LSRS uses specific climate parameters that can be calculated from existing or climate model data, linking predicted climate change with the Soil Landscapes of Canada (SLC) to determine potential impacts. Output from the Canadian Global Circulation Model (CGCM1) was used to test the process and to analyze the impact of this scenario on agricultural land resources. The process and results from this study can lead to further analysis and discussion of potential impacts of climate change on Prairie agriculture.

This project was supported mainly by the Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative (PARC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC). Success of this project can be attributed to the many participants from the following agencies: GIS Unit and Prairie Agroclimate Unit, Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration (AAFC/PFRA) Eastern Cereal and Oilseed Research Centre (ECORC) and the Western Land Resource Group (WLRG), Research Branch, AAFC. Department of Geography, University of Regina Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Institute for Climate Studies (CICS).

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