Forestry and Biodiversity Research Projects

In January 2008 the Council of the Federation directed the Canadian Council of Forest Ministers (CCFM) to undertake a study of the climate change vulnerability of Canada's commercial tree species. This was in recognition of the importance of Canada's forests to Canadians and forests' vulnerability to climate change. The initial product of Phase 1 of the vulnerability study was the report "Vulnerability of Canada's Tree Species to Climate Change and Management Implications for Adaptation: Overview for Policy Makers and Practitioners", released by the CCFM in October 2009. The overview report will be followed by a more detailed and fully referenced technical report. Phase 2 of the CCFM study will consider broader ecosystem-level impacts of climate change on forests and provide tools and guidance for forest managers on how to assess their adaptive capacity and undertake adaptation planning.

CCFM report (2.73 Mb)

Collapse this panel

The effect of climate change on fire behavior may become a critical issue for resource management in the Canadian boreal forest. This study applies a procedure to assess the effects of climate change on fire behavior potential in central Saskatchewan (135,000 km ), an area that characterizes the transition from mixedwoods to pure coniferous forest types. Head fire intensity (HFI), a measure of the fire's energy output, was used to quantify fire behavior potential because it can be related to fire behavior characteristics, suppression effectiveness, and fire effects. Percentile HFI maps were created with fuels data and fire weather from three simulated climate scenarios produced by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). These scenarios represent base (1×CO ), double (2×CO ), and triple (3×CO ) levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Our results show a marked increase in fire behavior potential in a 2×CO environment, whereas little change was observed from 2×CO to 3×CO . According to our results, the number of days that could support extreme fire behavior potential may quadruple in a 2×CO climate. Furthermore, fires are also expected to be more intense, on average. An increase in fire intensity would likely be translated into greater fire spread and more erratic fire behavior, leading to increased area burned. However, a changing climate does not necessarily entail a ubiquitous or uniform increase in fire potential throughout an area. Indeed, we found that there was significant spatial variation in the effects of climate change on HFI values, due to the interaction and spatial variation between fuel types and weather patterns.

Summary Document (1 Mb)

Collapse this panel

The Canadian Boreal Forest is a mainstay of the Canadian economy, and it has immense social, environmental and intrinsic importance. Canada depends on the boreal forest for many essential products and services including forest products, wildlife habitat, recreation, research, and educational opportunities, and spiritual values. Forestry is an important primary goods-producing industry in the Prairie Provinces. Many of the communities and businesses in the north depend heavily on forest related activities. As the boreal forest is altered by climate change, these values will be compromised in important ways. Climate change is expected to affect boreal forests to a greater degree than other forest types because of its northern location and because boreal forests are more sensitive to temperature. Currently available information on climate change impacts is presented at global or regional scales and does not provide adequate information for forest and other resource managers to make decisions on changing their management to adapt. Overall objectives of this project are to collect and synthesize information on climate change impacts on western Canada’s boreal forest, and to present the information at spatial and temporal scales meaningful to forest management and planning. Specific objectives of this project are:

1. targeted literature review;
2. conceptual model;
3. sensitivity analyses of landscapes;
4. modelling approaches;
5. adaptation option identification; and
6. communication of results.

The Canada Country Study forest literature review by Wheaton (1997) was updated in several main topic areas including moisture and other climate variables, fire, insects, diseases, and economics. Interactions, knowledge gaps, adaptation options were discussed, and recommendations were developed. A very substantial gap in current boreal forest impacts, adaptations, and vulnerability work is that findings have not been drawn together in any comprehensive way. This is a serious obstacle to determining the vulnerability of the boreal forest and of those communities that rely on the forest. A conceptual model to accomplish this integration is essential and the foundation to further modelling (Figure 1). We developed and presented a preliminary integrated conceptual model based on the findings from the literature review, meetings, workshops, and an assessment of existing models of various types. The conceptual model highlighted and synthesized the impact of climate change on forest fire frequency and severity; moisture stress and productivity; and forest insect pest outbreaks. Also included is the recognition that climate-induced impacts will occur in association with other land use activities such as timber harvesting, mining development and road construction. These must also be taken into account when assessing the ecological and socio-economic impacts of climate change. Conceptual models were also created to advance research on the effect of climate change on the output of the forest sector and to estimate the economic impacts of climate change on the forest sector. A limitation to this entire work was the lack of published impacts and adaptations papers for this area and subject. This lack is being partly addressed, as additional work done for the Government of Canada’s Climate Change Action Fund and for the Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative (PARC) is being completed. However, socio-economic aspects, for example, may still be neglected.

Our results indicate that climatically-induced changes to the boreal forest in western Canada would likely occur through three principal mechanisms and their synergies: moisture availability, forest fires and insect outbreaks. By 2080, drought could reduce forest productivity by up to 50%, particularly at the southern margin of the existing forest and in locations where soil water-holding capacity is low. However, drought may improve growing conditions in locations where the water table is currently too high for forest growth. In areas where there is sufficient moisture, productivity could increase up to 40% due to higher temperatures. Forest fires are likely to become more frequent, and fire severity could increase by 40-50% due to the warmer, drier conditions. Insect outbreaks are expected to increase due to higher temperatures, longer growing seasons, generally drier conditions, and the effects of forest fragmentation. In addition, it is important to recognize that these effects will interact with one another. For example, trees under moisture stress are more susceptible to insect attack, and the resulting dead trees will provide more fuel for forest fires. More forest fire activity will result in a generally younger forest, with consequent effects on wildlife species that prefer older forest. Forest companies that depend on a particular species may have to seek wood supplies in new locations as forest species are re-distributed due to the impacts of changes to moisture availability and increased disturbance. These impacts will likely be most severe in the southern portions of the boreal forest and most pronounced in areas with low soil water-holding capacity. In contrast, the northern boundary of the forest may shift northward, providing new opportunities for northern communities. This project has advanced boreal forest impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability research and communications of this type of research. The project has filled gaps in several areas, including updating the literature review, developing conceptual models, applying a synthesis approach, and presenting information at scales meaningful to decision-makers. The project is documented in several papers (Appendix A), and has been discussed in several forums, including invited presentations listed in the Project Deliverables Section. The boreal forest is affected by many variables, several of which act together to produce stronger changes than they would acting singly. This project is a first attempt to develop approaches to draw these various factors together. The synthesis process is not sufficiently mature to draw substantive conclusions, however the project does demonstrate the value of this approach.

Download Report (8.28 Mb)

Collapse this panel

This report has been prepared as part of a Collaborative Research Agreement between the Prairie Adaptation Research Cooperative (PARC) and the Canadian Forestry Service (CFS), Northern Forestry Centre. The PARC is funded by the Government of Canada's Climate Change Action Fund and it has been created to support and bring together the work of universities, private organizations, and federal and provincial departments on adaptations to climate change in the Prairie provinces. Climate change studies are at the forefront of research priorities at the CFS and thus this opportunity to collaborate with PARC and other partners to enhance our knowledge of forest fire aspects and issues as related to climate change was most welcomed. This report provides a description of two studies. The first is an assessment of present and future landscape-level wildfire behavior potential in central Saskatchewan. This study is aimed at evaluating the potential impact of climate change on fire behavior characteristics, fire effects, and suppression capability and providing fire managers with procedures and tools to forecast long-term potential changes in the fire environment. Along with the scientific results and their implications for fire and forest management, this first section includes a detailed description of the methodology and the technical requirements because we felt that providing the reader with a knowledge of the intricacies and assumptions used in creating fire behavior potential maps was important. At the end of section one in Appendix I, several maps illustrate the changes in fire behavior potential.

The second study is an evaluation of the effectiveness of landscape-level fuels treatment at reducing wildfire size in a forest management agreement area in west central Alberta. It is hoped that this study will contribute to the development of climate change adaptation strategies that can be used by forest companies in response to potential increases in wildfire activity. This section is presented as a preliminary journal article.

Download Report (12.7 Mb)

Collapse this panel

The effects of future fire regimes altered by climate change, and fire management in adaptation to climate change were studied in the boreal forest region of the Prairie provinces. Four National Parks were used as study areas. Present (1975-90) and future (2080-2100) fire regimes were simulated in Wood Buffalo National Park, Elk Island National Park, Prince Albert National Park and Riding Mountain National Park using data from the Canadian (CGCM1) and Hadley (HadCM3) Global Climate Models (GCM) in separate the future role of these forests as carbon sinks or sources. Additional future simulations were run using adapted fire management strategies to meet the management goals for each National Park. This included increased fire suppression and the use of prescribed fire to meet fire cycle objectives. Future forest composition and biomass storage under current and adapted fire management strategies were also compared to determine the impact of various future fire management options. Both of the GCM’s showed more severe burning conditions under future fire regimes. This includes fires with higher intensity, greater depth of burn, greater total fuel consumption and shorter fire cycles (or higher rates of annual area burned). The Canadian GCM indicated burning conditions more severe than the Hadley GCM. The Canadian GCM results also appeared more reliable when fire weather output was compared to current and historical data. In the model simulations, the shorter fire cycles of future fire regimes generally favoured aspen and birch because of their post-fire resprouting ability, and jack pine because of its serotinous cones which release stored seed after fire. Shorter fire cycles provided more frequent regeneration opportunity for these species. Because black spruce is an annual seeder and has semi-serotinous cones, regeneration was only minimally influenced by future changes in the fire cycle. However, white spruce stands declined sharply due to shorter fire cycles, and the spring and summer fire regime of the study areas. This was because white spruce doesn’t store seed and seed ripening doesn’t occur until late summer or early fall, so there is no opportunity to regenerate when trees are killed by early season fire. For all of the study area Parks, maintaining representation of pure and mixed white spruce ecosystems will be a concern under future fire regimes. The model simulations also showed that a management goal of fire exclusion would effectively lead to the removal of jack pine from the study areas, and cause a sharp decline in aspen and birch stands. There was a general increase in total biomass storage under the simulated future fire regimes. This was caused by two factors. Shorter fire cycles resulted in a younger age-class distribution so there were less slow-growing, low density old stands, and more fast-growing, high density young stands. The second factor was an increase in aspen, which is faster growing than the other species. Aspen regeneration was favoured by short fire cycles, and aspen seedlings out-competed jack pine and white birch. As well, when white spruce failed to regenerate, mixed stands converted to pure aspen stands. A secondary effect of greater aspen live tree biomass was an increase in forest floor biomass because of increased detrital input. Biomass storage was very low in the fire exclusion simulations. In Wood Buffalo National Park, simulations of increased future fire suppression assisted in maintaining white spruce ecosystems and older age classes of all species, but it had a minimal impact on representation of other forested ecosystems. Increased fire suppression also increased the long-term total biomass storage simulation scenarios. The long-term effects of the different fire regimes on forests were simulated using a stand-level, boreal fire effects model (BORFIRE) developed for this study. Changes in forest composition and biomass storage due to future altered fire regimes were determined by comparing current and future simulation results. This was used to assess the ecological impact of altered fire regimes on boreal forests, and in the Park by 83M tonnes. The simulations showed prescribed burning to be an important component of future fire management in Elk Island National Park, Prince Albert National Park and Riding Mountain National Park. Without prescribed fire, the fire cycle in all three Parks would be too long to maintain current stands of aspen, jack pine and white birch. A range of fire regimes appears necessary to manage different areas in each National Park. Aspen in open or closed stands can be promoted by burning after vernal leaf flush, or its removal can be facilitated by burning prior to leaf flush with short to moderate fire cycles or 25-75 years. The use of short fire cycles may be required to maintain grasslands and shrublands and prevent the encroachment of aspen. White spruce stands require fires of low intensity, or late season fires and longer fire cycles (100+ years). In Prince Albert National Park and Riding Mountain National Park , the use of prescribed fire on 75-year and 100-year fire cycles to maintain current forest ecosystems resulted in a total biomass storage increase of 10-17M tonnes and 8-12M tonnes, respectively. Future needs in fire and climate change research includes development of landscape models that simulate physical and ecological fire effects, and analysis of future fire management strategies in the commercial forest zone.

Download Report (7 Mb)

Collapse this panel

Research on climate change impacts indicates that boreal forests in Western Canada have significant potential vulnerabilities in the areas of moisture stress, insects and disease, and fire, particularly near the forest-grassland boundary. This area is the site of the majority of industrial forest management in the prairie provinces. However, currently available information about the potential impacts of climate change is not available at spatial and temporal scales relevant to forest resource planning and management. In addition, options available to the forest industry for adapting to these changes have not been investigated. This project developed a framework for identifying climate change impacts and potential adaptation options available to forest managers, and was based on work with individual companies on how to apply these options to their specific land base and forest operations. In the first phase of the project, we worked with forest companies across the prairie provinces, identifying potential impacts and adaptation options through questionnaires and interviews. In the second phase, we carried out a case study with LP Corporation (a forest products company in Swan River MB) to identify adaptation options relevant to the characteristics of their land base (e.g., soils, vegetation, hydrology) and their operations (e.g., harvest techniques, season of harvest, regeneration systems). We concluded from the consultations and the case study that the forest management sector in the prairie provinces does have the ability to successfully adapt to climate change. However, there needs to be much better communication between the scientific community and forest managers, and climate change impacts research must be carried out at temporal and spatial scales relevant to forest managers' planning activities. The methods developed in this project should be applicable to identifying adaptation options for other resource management sectors in the prairie provinces.

Download Report (265 Kb)

Collapse this panel

The issue of global climate change is moving to the forefront of national policies throughout the world. Its potential impacts on prairie biological diversity in Canada have recently been reviewed by Anderson et al. (1999), Clair et al. (1999) and Herrington et al. (1997). For aquatic systems, wild species tied to semi-permanent or seasonal wetlands are predicted to be the most affected by climate change in this region. In addition, major consequences for some fish species due to increases in water temperature and salinity are also predicted. Indeed, the fish community has been suggested as being an indicator of many of the impacts of climate change (Herrington et al. 1997). For terrestrial systems, a number of potential impacts on biodiversity and wildlife have also been identified (Anderson et al. 1999, Herrington et al. 1997).

The persistence of a particular species in a warmer, drier climate lies in its ability to adapt to the new ecological regime. The easiest way for a species to adapt is to shift its geographic range to a new area that has the appropriate climate (Hunter 1996). However, this may not be as easy as in the geologic past for two reasons. First, current populations of many native species are already stressed by competition with exotic species, mortality from pesticides and pollution, and the effects of overexploitation (Hunter 1996, Meffe and Carroll 1994). Because stressed populations tend to be small and produce few offspring, they have a reduced ability of dispersal into a new habitat.

Successful dispersal is a prerequisite for a species shifting its geographic range in response to climate change. Second, human alteration of landscapes has reduced the total amount of suitable habitat for many species and fragmented these landscapes with roads, dams, croplands, and urban areas. Thus, the odds of a dispersing individual being able to arrive in a suitable habitat have been much reduced (Gates 1993, Peters and Lovejoy 1992).

The prairies of Canada are one of the most altered and highly fragmented ecosystems of the planet (Samson and Knopf 1996). Recent research conducted in Saskatchewan dramatically illustrates the challenges facing both terrestrial and aquatic prairie biodiversity in dispersing to new habitats. For example, native grassland beetles and spiders show a typical species richness/area relationship with greatly reduced richness on smaller pastures. Analysis of satellite vegetation cover maps has shown that 99% of remaining native grassland patches are of relatively small size (James et al. 1999; Fig. 1). Furthermore, an analysis of rarity in arthropods has shown that only a few native species are widespread, and that 45% and 36% of beetle and spider species respectively were recorded only once or twice. Aquatic ecosystems are also highly fragmented (Fig. 2). For example, research on one prairie watershed revealed 47 barriers to fish passage and that the watershed had been fragmented into 16 separate artificial "watersheds" as a result. In that watershed, northern pike spawning habitat had been reduced by 75%, one fish species has been eliminated from the system, and another is believed to be at risk (K. Murphy, unpubl.).

In addition, some site-specific surveys have been conducted that help to build a more accurate picture for particular areas. For example, Saskatchewan Wetland Conservation Corporation=s native prairie stewardship program has surveyed areas of the Regina Plains to determine the extent of remaining native grassland (Riemer et al. 1997). They found that only 16% of sites surveyed could be considered as native grassland, most were less than 80 acres in size, and only 3% of the remaining native prairie sites that they surveyed were in very good to excellent condition.

In summary, it is clear that a large number of terrestrial and aquatic species on the highly fragmented prairies are at risk of extirpation through the effects of climate change. The assumption has been that, under climate change, they will move and that others will take their place (Clair et al. 1999, Anderson et al. 1999). The reality may be quite different.

Download Report (583 Kb)

Collapse this panel

Given that some impacts of climate warming are being observed across Canada (the current drought in Alberta and Saskatchewan being only one example), and that climate model projections indicate larger, systematic changes occurring within the next 50-100 years, sustainable management of Canada’s forest resources will need to take the effects of such changes into account. The most immediately observable impacts are likely to be changes in species productivity, competition and survival. Estimating these impacts will be critical for the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies.

This project attempts to assess these potential impacts on western boreal forest ecosystems using a suite of process models applied to detailed spatial data sets. In principle, the models must first be calibrated and tested by running them with data representative of current climate conditions for the study area. Only when this has been achieved with acceptable results should the effects of possible future climates be investigated using scenario data (ideally derived from global climate model simulations).

Current models of stand productivity generally employ traditional growth and yield (G&Y) modeling based on plot-level measurements of tree growth. Because local climate is a major determinant of environmental conditions at all forest sites, yield forecasts based on such models are likely to be inaccurate if appreciable changes in climate do occur. In the worst cases, the predictions of future yield could be completely incorrect. An alternative approach is to develop process-based growth models that use physiological and physical principles to relate stand growth to climate. The Canadian Forest Service’s Laurentian Forestry Centre (LFC) is at the forefront in developing and testing this approach. LFC is leading a project termed ECOLEAP (Extended COllaboration for Linking Ecophysiology And Forest Productivity) (http://www.cfl.forestry.ca/ECOLEAP), in which forest net primary productivity (NPP) is simulated mechanistically, and then mapped at the landscape scale using spatial data.

The project reported here, and referred to as ECOLEAP-West, builds on this initiative for two ecologically-distinct study regions within Alberta and Saskatchewan, respectively. Process-based models to estimate NPP were driven by spatial data sets including digital elevation, soils, satellite remote sensing, and interpolated climate. These NPP estimates were then compared to site-level productivity estimates derived from field measurements at permanent sample plots in the Foothills Model Forest (FMF) study area in Alberta. The aim was to establish an acceptable level of agreement between the different estimates of NPP, and then apply the process-based models to the Saskatchewan study region. The end products should include tools to assess forest productivity under both present-day and plausible future climates, and to investigate the effects of forest management options to adapt to climate change. Preliminary results indicate that forest management can have significant effects on productivity, species composition and carbon sequestration.

Download Report (12.1 Mb)

Collapse this panel