Projects – Page 2

Natural and Anthropogenic Forcing of Hydroclimatic Variability in the North Saskatchewan River Basin

PROJECT SUMMARY

The objective of this project is to provide the industrial partner, EPCOR Utilities Inc., with projections of future climate and runoff in the North Saskatchewan River Basin (NSRB) that consider both natural variability and human caused climate change. We will evaluate the uncertainty in these projections and determine the probability of reaching extreme water levels. This project is based on outputs from the latest generation of Regional Climate Models (RCMs), and driving a calibrated hydrological model with future climatology from a RCM. Compare climate and runoff projections from different RCMs and multiple runs of the same RCM enables us to determine how much uncertainty is due to using different models, different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, or the natural variability of the regional climate regime. We will compare data from the models to 900 years of weekly river flows based on the growth of trees in the river basin, and a method of scaling the annual flows to weekly estimates. This research provides EPCOR Utilities Inc. with improved capacity for planning and implementing adaptive strategies for water management under climate change.

National Assessment Prairies Chapter

PROJECT SUMMARY

Canada in a Changing Climate: Advancing our Knowledge for Action is the national assessment of how the climate in Canada is changing, the impacts of these changes, and how we are adapting to reduce risk. A series of authoritative science and information products will be released over the next several years. They will serve as a resource for Canadians, raising awareness of the key issues facing our country and providing information to support sound adaptation decisions and actions.

PARC was asked to lead the writing of the regional chapter focused on the Prairie Provinces. This chapter will be released in the fall of 2020.

Hydroclimatic Variability in Canada’s Western Interior

PROJECT SUMMARY

The objective of this long-term NSERC-funded research program is to develop a better understanding of the nature and forcing of hydroclimatic variability of the past millennium in Canada’s western interior. In our tree-ring lab, we have established a network of close to 200 tree-ring chronologies spanning 20 degrees of latitude and circumscribing the Prairie Ecozone. These records provide a context for interpreting 1) the variability of measured precipitation, temperature and streamflow, 2) projections of future climate change, and 3) the sustainability of current water resource management regimes. We collaborate on studies of the paleohydrology of river basins in Chile and the western US.

Heritage Forest Demonstration Project

PROJECT SUMMARY

PARC is working with SaskWater and other partners on an effluent irrigated woodlot demonstration project located a few kilometres south of Moose Jaw.

Currently most Saskatchewan effluent is discharged into watercourses, where it often causes problems because of its nutrient load. But land-based effluent disposal is a viable option for effluent management, and well tested around the world. Effluent can be used to grow agricultural crops or trees.

Prairie people value their town and city parks and street trees highly, and in rural Saskatchewan shelterbelts are also highly valued. It makes sense to look to create more tree and forest opportunities in southern Saskatchewan. Land-based effluent management may provide one way of generating more tree and forest experiences in the southern half of the province.

In a Heritage Forest system, once trees are well established (at around 10 years), it will be possible to cease irrigation. Established trees are reasonably drought tolerant. One can then move the irrigation to an adjoining piece of land and start the next age cohort of the Heritage Forest. By repeating this pattern, one can establish a diverse aged forest. Alternatively, one can choose to continue the irrigation process at a given site until the forest is fully mature.

On the Moose Jaw test site a wide variety of tree species (23) are being tested to see how they perform under a moderate level of effluent irrigation. Just as in a natural forest, some of the tested species (such as the pines and poplar) are relatively fast growing, while other species (such as spruce) are slower growing.

There are two objectives of the Heritage Forest experiment: 1) to provide a physical and visible demonstration of how an effluent-driven Heritage Forest could look and function ecologically, and 2) to discover which tree species can be recommended to interested communities for inclusion in their own effluent-driven Heritage Forest. Component trees could include pines, spruce, larch, oak, elm, ash, maple, basswood, poplars and willows. Depending on its size and location, once the irrigation phase is over, a Heritage Forest could be used for a number of recreational activities.

More Information:

Visit SaskWater’s Effluent Irrigated Woodlot Demonstration Project website.

Institutional Adaptations to Climate Change

Canada-Chile Case Study on Adaptation

In 2004, the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC) and the Major Collaborative Research Initiatives (MCRI) program provided funding for a joint project between Chilean and Canadian research institutions to investigate the similarities in dryland areas and also to identify common adaptation options at the institutional and community levels. The project was designed to run from January of 2004 until December of 2008.

The critical issue that the IACC project addresses is the capacity of institutions in dryland regions to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Snow-melt dominated watersheds are highly sensitive and vulnerable to climate change. Glaciers are expected to continue to retreat, thus reducing water quality and quantity for population living in these areas. Glaciers are expected to continue to retreat, thus reducing water quality and quantity for population living in these areas. The two basins selected for this study, the Elqui River Basin (ERB) in north-central Chile and the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) in western Canada, are good examples of these watersheds

Both watersheds have a dry climate adjacent to a major mountain system and landscapes at risk of desertification, as well as an agricultural economy dependent on water derived from mountain snow and glaciers. As a result of drier conditions and increased climatic uncertainty, these areas are likely to be similarly affected by climate change.

The goal of the project is to develop a systematic and comprehensive understanding of the capacities of regional institutions to formulate and implement strategies of adaptation to climate change risks and the forecasted impacts of climate change on the supply and management of water resources in dryland environments. The specific objectives of the project are:

to identify the current social and physical vulnerabilities related to water resource scarcity in the two dryland regions;
to examine the effects of climate change risks on the identified vulnerabilities; and
to assess the technical and social adaptive capacities of the regional institutions to address the vulnerabilities to current water scarcity and climate change risks.

These objectives have been attained through the integration of several research activities: (a) an assessment of the current vulnerabilities of a group of communities in the two basins; (b) an analysis of the role of institutions in the resolution of a group of recent conflicts related to water scarcity; (c) a historical study of institutional adaptation in periods characterized by water scarcities; (d) an analysis of environmental vulnerabilities identified by stakeholders; (e) an assessment of the capacities of governance institutions to reduce the vulnerabilities of rural communities; and (f) an assessment of the future climate scenarios for the two basins – based on different climatic models – and their potential impacts.

The implementation of the project is characterized by an active and continuing integration of team members and research activities. Rather than developing a set of parallel studies, the project has emphasized a permanent integration of research activities that promote continuous collaboration among the members of the research team. A fundamental element in the process of integration has been the development of a common conceptual and methodological framework that defines the central activities of the project and their linkages.

More Information:

Visit the IACC project website

South Saskatchewan River Basin Project

PROJECT SUMMARY

This report summarizes the work and results of a study entitled “Assessment of the Vulnerability of Key Water Use Sectors in the South Saskatchewan River Basin (Alberta and Saskatchewan) to Changes in Water Supply Resulting from Climate Change”. That study constitutes the socioeconomic research team component of a unique, two-team project that examined the impact of predicted climate change on the surface water supply of the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB). A major contribution of the overall project was to link the physical, hydrological and socioeconomic aspects of those changes in an innovative, “end-to-end” analytical framework.

This report lays a foundation for future analyses and recognizes that the net impacts of climate change on the physical and social dimensions of the basin will continue to be influenced by shifting social, economic and environmental priorities and activities. The results presented here can inform site-specific decisions (as demonstrated for three cities) as well as guide infrastructure and policy debates. The value of applying these results in an integrated, yet practical, water management approach to assist in sub-basin, sectoral decision-making was a strong consensus of the expert and stakeholder consultations held across the basin as part of this study.

Climate Services Training Scan – Domestic

PROJECT SUMMARY

The objective of this project was to identify and understand the range of climate services training currently offered (or previously offered) in Canada and any gaps. We contacted federal, provincial and territorial government agencies; regional climate consortia; NGOs; and professional organizations. An online survey completed by these training providers collected information on the products and programs that they offer. In addition, we identified climate services training offered outside Canada and opportunities to learn from these international training programs. A major project report summarized the results of the online surveys and documented the current state of climate services training available in Canada. The results of this scan will be used by the Canadian Centres for Climate Services (CCCS) to develop climate services training based upon best practices that meets users’ needs and fills gaps in existing training.

Climate Monitoring for the Metis Association of Saskatchewan

PROJECT SUMMARY

The purpose of this project was to provide Limnos Environmental Consulting with a detailed description of local climate changes for their climate monitoring work with the Metis Association of Saskatchewan. We provided information on climate change from three sources: a) a paleo-perspective using tree-ring reconstructions of past climate variability and water levels, b) the instrumental records of temperature and precipitation, and c) climate scenarios for the next few decades using data from climate models.

Adaptation to Changing Water in Alberta

PROJECT SUMMARY

This project was a collaboration with scientists at the University of Alberta. Climate change will alter the spatial and temporal distribution of water supplies in Alberta. Understanding the dynamics of water flows and allocations is needed to enable timely policy decisions and better target investments in efficient water infrastructures and management facilities. This project sought to convey to stakeholders the risks and opportunities as a result of changes in future local water availabilities. Physically based modeling, using the SWAT model, enabled numerical simulation of the dynamics of basin hydrology and the response of hydrological processes to projected shifts in temperature and precipitation. Another approach taken at PARC was to examine the hydrology simulated by the Land Surface Schemes embedded in Regional Climate Models (RCM). This approach has the advantage of the coupled modeling of climate and hydrology thus capturing the hydrological response to transient changes in climatic variability; although the LSS is much less complex than the SWAT hydrological model. The use of complimentary approaches represents a robust solution to the problem of projecting future river flows. We were able to evaluate of the uncertainties associated with using different climate models and various formulations of the SWAT hydrological model.

The Castle River Basin: A Sentinel Watershed

PROJECT SUMMARY

This project was a collaboration with scientists at the University of Lethbridge. The project evaluated historical, contemporary and possible future land cover and climatic changes within the Castle Watershed headwaters of the Oldman River Basin (ORB), and quantified the impacts of these changes to river runoff and water supply. Synergistic field, remote sensing and modeling studies were conducted to understand terrain and land cover properties in this Rocky Mountain watershed and how they influence hydrology at a scale suitable for operational water resource planning. Researchers at PARC provided high-resolution Regional Climate Model projections to drive the ACRU physical hydrological model and parameterize it for simulations of future trends in ORB water supply. A complimentary goal was to provide baseline data on past and present hydro-ecological conditions within the Castle Watershed. Towards this goal, PARC scientists reconstructed the annual flow of the Castle River from 1150 to 2015.