PROJECT SUMMARY

The objective of this project was to examine temperature and precipitation data from a suite of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in terms of the implication for water availability for agricultural production. We first evaluated the GCMs / RCMs in terms of their capacity to simulative the climate of western Canada. We quantified differences between simulated and observed climate and bias corrected the climate projections. The climate data included mean conditions and extremes, and indices that combine temperature and precipitation, such as the Climate Moisture Index and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. The climate projections were expressed in terms of probabilities of exceeding critical thresholds for agricultural production. The research results were presented at forums attended by agricultural producers and industry representatives.