Resource Category: Presentations

Confirm the pre-industrial GCM control experiments (unforced experiments used to assess model stability and natural climate variability) are capturing the low frequency PDO variability (>30y r
cycles) not visible with the short 20th century runs (~110 yrs)

it is likely that region-specific changes in the hydrologic cycle produced the greatest societal and economic challenges. …

Projected changes in mean seasonal temperature and precipitation for the grassland forest regions. The grey squares indicate the ‘natural’ climate variability simulated by a long control run of the CGCM2.

At Edmonton House, a large fire burned “all around us” on April 27th (1796) and burned on both sides of the river. On May 7th, light canoes arrived at from Buckingham House damaged from the shallow water.

Published: May 9, 2016

The Vulnerability to Extreme Events (Drought, Flood,
Fire) in the South Saskatchewan River Basin, Canada
Presented by
Assoc. Prof. Margot A. Hurlbert, University of Regina
Harry Diaz, David Sauchyn, Elaine Wheaton, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Extremes
in the Americas Project Canadian Team
May 9, 2016
Vacea Integration Meeting
Termas EC, Chile on
Highlights
• Method
• Five Nodes of Vulnerability
• Reflection of how Canada
fits in
• Strengths, weaknesses, gaps
• Doubts
• Interdisciplinary work?
• Moidification in future?

Survey Monkey
• All Canadian Team
members were sent the
translated integration
process of P. Mussetta
(2015)
• Identify:
• key impacts of climate
change and key
vulnerabilities
• determinants or causes
• consequences of
vulnerability
• adaptive strategies….

Canadian Vulnerability Nodes
• Reduced
Government
programs for
agriculture
• Programs support
producer
profitability, not
longevity
• Policy is based on
politics/religion/t
he past and not
informed by
science
• People plan for
weather, not
climate
1.Climate
vs. Weather
2. God
Effect:
Dismissal of
Science
3.
Institutional
Deficit
4.
Agricultural
way of life
5. Transformations
Deficit of inter-disciplinary science
and deep social learning
1. It’s all about weather: drought and
flood (not climate)
• In interviews, people
spoke about the weather
– drought or flood
• Weather is short term
variations in atmospheric
conditions (temperature
and precipitation)
• Climate is a statistical
synthesis of weather and
people have difficulty
grasping possible future
climates
• The SSRB has a much
wider natural historic
climate variability than
what is presently
considered in planning
• Climate models show an
even greater climate
variability in the future
• Warmer wetter winters
and warmer, drier
summers with longer
growing seasons are
expected
Producer and community adaptations
Experience is key
• Adaptive measures or practices: rotational grazing, crop rotation, crop selection (e.g., lentils
for drought-resistance; yellow peas for shorter growing seasons), contour tillage, zero-till
farming, hauling water, bringing hay from other areas, and diversification of water sources
(digging more dugouts, rainwater conservation, drilling wells, accessing natural springs, and
using mixed water sources), as well as reliance on crop insurance, changing management
practices (stockpiling hay in non-drought years or selling or even culling cattle in drought
years).
• Improving access to water resources by maintaining and improving existing water resources
and investing in further irrigation were noted as the best adaptive practices to droughts.
Wells, dugouts, dams and dike irrigation are commonly used in the area, as well as
conservation practices such as irrigating later in the day to avoid evaporation. While all
agricultural producers are sensitive to drought, the existence of an irrigation infrastructure is
key to drought-proofing the area, especially in Alberta.
• Local water co-operatives have also enhanced adaptive capacity in the area. The cooperatives run water lines and pump infrastructure, which assist producers during drought
Soil Erosion, Saskatchewan
Impact: We don’t plan for climate change…. because it is uncertain
Less adaptive capacity in relation to flood (excess precipitation) hail and wind
Location of farm is key
When will we notice climate change?
This and next 2 slide from “Theme 2: Climate and
Agro-Ecological Variability” presented by David Sauchyn, Saskatoon Nov 3, 2014
Time of emergence of climate signals
Hawkins and Sutton (2012)
ToE: Time of Emergence
S/N: Signal/Noise
“uncertainty owing to internal variability is
dominant and is essentially irreducible”
Fischer et al. (2013)
• Most GCMs and RCMs are able to replicate the historical climate of
western Canada in terms of spatial and annual and seasonal patterns
• Projections of changes in temperature and are consistent and robust
• Conversely, projections of changes in the amount and intensity of
precipitation, for example, are much less certain
• Thus we are able to provide a set of climate change scenarios, that is,
projected changes in average temperature and precipitation
• Projections of changes in the severity and frequency of climate extremes
differ to a large degree among models, runs of models and across the
study areas.
Climate Scenarios – Conclusions
Causes of vulnerability
• Lack of comprehension of science
• Focus on uncertainty and this prevents
decision making instead of focus on certainty
• Plans and policies respond to the fragmented
issues of drought and flood, not climate
change
Adaptive Strategies
• Past experiences build adaptive capacity but a
long term planning time frame is required
taking into account climate science
• Adaptations for drought and flood can be
synergistic
• Better job communicating consequences of
global climate changes
• We need to frame the problem as climate
change, not variability
“Climate has been changing forever… there is little to
nothing mankind can do about it… we have wasted a
lot of time on this BS”
2. The God Effect: Dismissal of
Science
• “Our God has created this,
and the environment, it
does clean itself up..”
• Rejection of science based
policy by previous Canadian
government
• Reliance on individuals to
adapt
Consequences
• Failure to take into account
climate change in policy
• Failure to utilize social
science in policy (could lead
to maladaptation)
• One size fits all policy
response
Future Strategies
Recognize human elements of
risk
• Social capital (Hutterites and
NGOs) are increasingly
important given reduction of
government
• Build emergency response
based on social capital and
community priorities
• Examine power relations
amongst producers.
• Geographical determination
and scale of drought and flood
and better calibration of policy
instruments
Transformation
• Capacity of people to
respond to extreme events
determines if an event is a
disaster
• Disasters may reduce by
virtue of social dimensions
3. The Reduction of Institutional Study
and Capacity
Loss of institutional capital
• PFRA disbanded
• Loss of Canadian wheat
board
• Loss of crow rate for rail
transportation
• Increasing costs of disaster
payments for flood
• Increasing urbanization and
loss of education and health
services
Vulnerabilities
• Future projections are for
reduced stream flow in SSRB,
especially in summer
• Longer, more protracted
droughts
• These impacts combined with
the losses of institutional
capital leave farmers more
vulnerable than they have
been to climate change,
drought and flood
Future Strategies
Institutional hot spots
• The legal water rights system
and PPWB agreement for
water sharing between Alberta
and Saskatchewan need public
consideration in light of CC
impacts
• Can policy instruments be
revised and retooled taking
into account the impacts of
climate change? (longer
droughts)
• What can local governments
do in relation to emergencies?
Transformation
• Recommendations made
after a drought and flood
need to be implemented
• New methods of providing
institutional support in
current neo-liberal context
• Reconsider local
government and delivery of
services of provincial and
federal government (rebuild
PFRA)
4. Agriculture is Both a Way of Life and
an Agri-Business
• A small number of large
farms (10%) account for
most farm revenue
(70%)
• The scale of our science
corresponds to the
scale of agri-business!
• Rural social capital is
weaker than it has been
before
• Large producers
successfully access
instruments and
information to adapt
• Small producers adopt
livelihood strategies
(obtaining off farm
income, renting out
farm land, etc.)
Future Strategies
• Recognize small
agricultural producers
as an important feature
of the agricultural
landscape and
• Target programs to
small producers, e.g.
wetland conservation,
• Support agriculture as a
way of life, “Ag more
than ever”
• Support the social and
human capital of all
farmers; make sure
small farmers have
access to technology,
information, need to
sustain livelihood of
farming
5. Interdisciplinary transformation
We have not done enough
interdisciplinary work
• Academics traditionally
work on independent
research projects
• Academia doesn’t reward
inter-disciplinarity
Questions we missed
• How do warmer winters,
shorter snow pack, and more
precipitation in winters impact
dam management flood zones,
building standards…?
• How do flood issues get
resolved?
• How can adaptations be
optimized given changing
north and south dimensions?
SCC: Irrigated land has increased
21
Trends from Satellite Image Analysis: 1984-2011 – J Piwowar
Longer growing season and increased biomass
Future Strategies
Framing the research question
• Evidence based adaptation
policy and planning requires
interdisciplinary work
• Common framing of
problems and
understanding of key
variables and relevant
scales of analysis
Process is important
• Mutual framing of all
science required
• Need integrated research
programs that include the
natural and social scientists
in defining the problem
• This must be demonstrated
at the forefront

Pathway to Resilience
Transformations
Communicate
and innovate
by integrating
disciplines by
co-framing
research
questions
God effect: Dismissal of
Science Weather vs.
Climate
Start with a
plan for
climate
change that
includes
impacts
Institutional deficit
Agricultural way of life
Value
farming
as way
of life Re-tool
government
and policy
support for
farming
Commit
to
science
based
policy
Climate Resilience
Adaptive Governance
of Disaster
Drought and Flood in Rural Areas
Margot A. Hurlbert
May, 2016

Community vulnerability
assessments
Modeling climate variability and
extremes
Ecosystem sensitivity / health
Governance and policy
Adaptive practices
Integration analysis

It would be almost criminal to bring settlers here to try to make a living out of straight farming.

“I found looking at the treering growth, that there’s an approximate 60-year weather cycle in this country, but 60 years isn’t definite, it could be 70 years and it could be even less, with weather there’s nothing written in stone.”

“We find a significant increasing trend in the length of the growing season and in the associated available heat. The winter temperature is less damaging and the frost-free periods are longer.”

Published: November 22, 2018

Farming Through the Change
Dave Sauchyn, PhD, PGeo
Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative (PARC), University of Regina
Water and Agriculture Conference, 22 November 2018, Crossfield, AB
The 10 warmest years since 1880:
Global temperature anomalies
October 2018 marks was the 406th consecutive month
with temperatures above the 20th century average.
Above
average
Below
average
Temperature Anomaly (

C)
www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201801

PAGES2k Consortium. 2017. A global multi-proxy database for
temperature reconstructions of the Common Era, Nature Scientific Data
The Prairies are getting less cold
Extreme cold days (- 35 C and less) are vanishing
1964-2017, Saskatoon
Source: Wittrock 2018
SRC Publication No. 10440-1E18
February 2018 SRC Climate Reference Station Annual Summary, 2017
page 15
DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES LESS THAN A SET POINT
Minus 30°C or Less
Minus 32.5°C or Less
Minus 35°C or Less
Minus 40°C or Less
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
Days
Annual 5-year running mean Trend line
0
5
10
15
20
25
1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
Days
Annual 5-year running mean Trend line
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
Days
Annual 5-year running mean Trend line
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
Days
Annual 5-year running mean Trend line
We are losing the advantage of a cold winter
“You’re lucky because you’re a northern-latitude country,
Mendelsohn says. “If you add it all up, it’s a good thing for Canada.”
Robert Mendelsohn, Yale University
For countries like Canada and Russia, though, even more dramatic
[than 2
] warming wouldn’t be a problem
Benny Peiser, John Moores University (Liverpool)
“We find a significant increasing trend in the length of the growing
season and in the associated available heat. The winter
temperature is less damaging and the frost-free periods are longer.”
Qian et al. 2010
“in the case of wheat, Canada is projected by most models to replace
the former Soviet Union [by 2050] to become one of the top three
exporters in the world.”
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
The view of Canada as a cold but warming country:
Projected Climate Changes, Western Canada
1971-2000 versus 2040-2069
Temperature Change (
∘C)
Precipitation Change (%)
summer
winter
Much Warmer
and Wetter
Warmer
Possibly Drier
Source: PCIC
Crop Yield Simulations, Pincher Creek – Spring Wheat
1971-2000 2041-2070
• AquaCrop model
• RCM3_CGCM3_A2 climate projection Poudel (2016)
1971-2000 2041-2070
Poudel (2016)
• AquaCrop model
• RCM3_CGCM3_A2 climate projection
Crop Yield Simulations, Pincher Creek – Feed Barley
Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)
Bonsal et al., 2017
Barrow and Sauchyn, 2018
S/N: Temperature
S/N: Precipitation
When will we notice
climate change?
Signal: anthropogenic
warming
Noise: natural variability
GWSP Digital Water Atlas (2008); http://atlas.gwsp.org
Inter-annual variation in the
Climate Moisture Index (P-PET)
< – 0.75 – 0.75 to – 0.25 – 0.25 to 0 0 to 0.25 0.25 to 0.75 > 0.75

Pacific
Decadal
Oscillation
decadal cycle
annual cycle
trend

Bow River at Stoney Trail, Calgary
July 23-29, Aug 20 & 30
* Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index
Growing Season SPEI* near Olds, AB, 1490-2010
measured tree rings
Growing Season SPEI near Olds, AB, 1490-2010
wet year dry year
CPR
It would be almost criminal to bring settlers here to try to make a living
out of straight farming.
Our True Immigration Policy,
Medicine Hat Times, Feb 5, 1891
1901 1911 1921 1931
SK 91,279 492,432 757,510 921,785
AB 73,022 374,295 588,454 731,605
Flagstaff County Agricultural Symposium
Sedgewick, Alberta, 28 July 2012
why do keep
collecting more
wood, don’t you
have enough?
– Farmer X
Mean Water Year Flow (m3/s) South Saskatchewan River
at Medicine Hat, 1108-2010
Vulnerabilidad y Adaptación a los Extremos
Climáticos en las Américas
Principal Investigators:
Dr. Dave Sauchyn, University of Regina, Canada
Dr. Fernando Santibañez, Universidad de Chile, Santiago
Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate
Extremes in the Americas (VACEA)
Los investigadores principales
www.parc.ca/vacea/
2042 0401 0.00 16.43 -0.36
2042 0402 0.05 14.54 -0.87
2042 0403 0.37 9.23 -0.45
2042 0404 0.02 6.40 -4.91
2042 0405 0.91 7.40 -2.48
2042 0406 0.10 11.28 -2.00
2042 0407 0.07 11.16 4.02
2042 0408 0.07 12.72 0.66
2042 0409 0.01 14.99 2.27
2042 0410 1.00 13.67 2.25
2042 0411 0.55 8.79 3.37
2042 0412 0.03 9.26 -0.47
2042 0413 0.10 9.54 1.46
2042 0414 0.00 8.64 0.67
2042 0415 2.53 9.14 5.08
2042 0416 4.12 9.82 2.35
2042 0417 1.30 10.87 5.80
2042 0418 0.00 17.69 2.27
2042 0419 0.63 15.92 7.18
2042 0420 0.50 14.29 4.49
2042 0421 8.14 10.73 6.24
2042 0422 26.47 9.07 4.67
2042 0423 28.69 4.97 -0.83
2042 0424 0.06 8.30 -6.33
2042 0425 0.00 11.64 -2.28
2042 0426 0.00 10.52 -1.15
2042 0427 0.08 16.10 -1.58
2042 0428 0.07 13.21 4.85
2042 0429 2.05 9.86 2.81
2042 0430 13.76 13.30 3.46
2042 0501 0.25 15.22 3.80
2042 0502 0.00 16.74 4.96
2042 0503 0.15 18.53 8.86
2042 0504 8.11 17.37 9.07
2042 0505 0.01 10.51 3.55
2042 0506 0.42 12.04 -1.02
2042 0507 7.05 11.45 2.09
2042 0508 0.49 14.64 4.60
2042 0509 5.52 12.31 5.43
2042 0510 1.01 10.88 2.32
2042 0511 0.05 14.33 3.08
2042 0512 0.34 13.20 6.08
2042 0513 0.49 15.07 6.29
2042 0514 1.12 16.88 3.35
2042 0515 0.55 16.48 7.10
2042 0516 0.58 23.34 5.89
2042 0517 1.38 22.76 8.41
2042 0518 4.28 21.10 8.80
2042 0519 7.11 12.89 8.75
2042 0520 0.04 15.67 4.44
2042 0521 0.90 15.12 5.19
2042 0522 11.48 13.95 7.39
2042 0523 7.84 10.02 8.10
2042 0524 20.14 9.99 7.87
2042 0525 2.16 14.75 6.87
2042 0526 0.02 18.55 4.51
2042 0527 0.11 19.95 7.45
2042 0528 0.13 20.10 7.12
2042 0529 11.10 19.98 8.35
2042 0530 0.02 19.17 9.01
2042 0531 0.00 21.59 8.91
Bev and Keith Everts

I’ll believe in climate change when we get unexpected weather
– Irrigation District manager
April 21, 2015
Source: PCC, U of W
Recent Extreme Events in the Prairie Provinces
15 April 2015
“I don’t know how you plan for something that’s never
happened” Regina Leader Post, 16 April 2015
Prepare for the Extremes
Key Principles of Sustainable Agriculture and Planned Adaptation to
Climate Change
Planned Adaptation Sustainable Agriculture
Sustainable Sustainable
Engage the local community Developed by local communities
Evidence-based Science-based
A balanced / holistic approach Integrated: complement existing programs and policies
Prioritized Targeted
Flexible and adaptive Flexible and adaptive
Transparent Accountable
From: Sauchyn, D.J. Sustainable Agriculture as Adaptation to Climate
Change, Farming for Tomorrow, Spring 2016
Opportunities
• Longer growing season
• More heat units
• Increased precipitation in winter
• Less cold, more favourable winter
Challenges
• Increased variability
• More favourable climate for pests and invasive species
• Less water stored as snow
• Reoccurrence of sustained drought but in a warmer climate
For more information:
The Prairie Adaptation Research
Collaborative was established in 2000,
to provide scientific support for climate
risk analysis and adaptation planning.
www.parc.ca
sauchyn@uregina.ca
‘Normal’ Climate for Olds: Average Monthly Precipitation and
Temperature, 1961- 1990
Source: http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_normals/
Out Farm the Climate

“You’re lucky because you’re a northern-latitude country, Mendelsohn says. “If you add it all up, it’s a good thing for Canada.” Robert Mendelsohn, Yale University