The South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) of Alberta, Canada, is semiarid and under severe
water stress due to increasing human demands. We present the first examination of projected changes in SSRB
runoff from a large set of North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program regional climate models (RCMs) plus one Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment RCM. We used six different runoff estimation methods: total surface and subsurface runoff (total runoff), surface runoff, and four estimations based
on Budyko functions. Most RCM estimations showed substantial biases and distribution differences when compared to observed data; thus bias correction was necessary.
