Published: March 17, 2010
Water Security on the Prairies
Dave Sauchyn,
Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative
University of Regina
Water Round Table
Regina, March 17, 2010
Seal River
Prairie Drainage Basins
Churchill River
Peace River
Athabasca River
Nelson River
3 1
1 0
0
Alberta
Manitoba
Saskatchewan British Columbia
Saskatchewan River
Hayes River
40
0
10
Edmonton
Lake Winnipeg Ontario
Assiniboine River
1
10
62
27
Regina
Calgary
Saskatoon
Montana Id h North Dakota
Washington
Red River
Winnipeg River
Missouri River 1
30
27
Winnipeg
o ta a Idaho
Minnesota
North Dakota
Oregon
Wisconsin
South Dakota
Wyoming
Helena Michigan
Bismarck
Minneapolis
Boise Saint Paul
source: AESB (formerly PFRA)
“we see the world as we want to see it,
not as it is not as it is
”
Gerald Butts
President / CEO
WWF
– Canada
Globe and Mail, February 10, 2010
6-9 Heavy Oil Upgraders planned for
the Edmonton Industrial Heartland
Each upgrader would require 20-30,000 cubic metres
the Edmonton Industrial Heartland
per day for evaporative cooling
Water Sources Water Sources
• The North Saskatchewan River (new licences)
• Under-utilized existin
g licences
• Recycled Wastewater
• Produced water in the area
From – WATER: Alberta’s Next Big Economic and Social
Challen
ge, P. Kim Stur
gess, P.En
g. FCAE –
www.apegga.org/Members/Events/…/APEGGAPDApr1
7-2008.ppt
Bruce Power study eyes northwest
S kth f l l t Sas
k
a
t
c
hewan
for new nuc
lear power p
lan
t
“the area on the North Saskatchewan River meets a
lot of the criteria to support a nuclear power plant.
“It’s got a good water source”
Duncan Hawthorne Duncan Hawthorne,
President and CEO
Bruce Power
Th C di P The
Canadian
Press 27/11/08 27/11/08
North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton
On May 2nd [1796] William Tomison wrote to
James Swain that furs could not be moved as,
“there being no water in the river.”
North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton, 1276-2006
150
m3/sec)
100
al Flow (m
50
an Annu
0
from Me
-50
epartures
1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
D-100
Old Wood
Headwaters, NSRB
July 23-29, Aug 20 & 30
Actual and Natural Flow, South Saskatchewan River
AMEC. 2009. South Saskatchewan River Basin in Alberta: Water Supply
Study. Alberta Agriculture and Rural Development.
The Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative is a
partnership of the governments of Canada, Alberta,
Saskatchewan and Manitoba mandated to pursue
climate change impacts and
adaptation research in the
P ii P i Prairie Provinces.
Projected changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation
The grey squares indicate the ‘natural’ climate variability
si l d b l l f h CGC 2 imu
late
d by a
lon
g contro
l run o
f t
he CGC
M
2.
Global warming — it’s not all bad
In fact, for people living in places like Edmonton, a
warmer climate has plenty of benefits
David Staples, The Edmonton Journal
Sunday, November 23, 2008
Robert Mendelsohn, an economics professor at Yale University, who says the
benefits of global warming for Canada will be substantial and will outweigh the
negative effects. “You’re lucky because you’re a northern latitude country,
Mendelsohn says. “If you add it all up, it’s a good thing for Canada.“
There will be opportunities for Canadian farmers going forward, Sauchyn says
…
“The most challenging impact of climate change is not going to be a shift in
average conditions average conditions …
”
Precipitation at Medicine Hat,1884-2002
300
p ,
)
200
~ 330 mm
100
average (
~
100
0
res from
a
-200
-100
Departu
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Seasonal Scenarios
Potential Climate Change (%) Impacts on Natural Flows in the SSRB
Martz et al. (2007)
AMEC 2009 S th S k t h Ri B i i AMEC. 2009. South
Sas
k
atc
hewan River
Basin in
Alberta: Water Supply Study. Alberta Agriculture and
Rural Development.
We are losing the advantage of a cold winter
Tompkins, SK, March 11, 2010
There will be greater variation in water and climate
B h d h d ll ld i h Bot
h
droug
ht an
d unusually wet years could occur w
i
t
h
greater frequency and severity
Annual Precipitation, Swift Current, 1895-2003
200
250
n
100
150
precipitatio
0
50
m average p
-50
0
partures from
-150
-100
dep
source: Environment Canada
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-200
Global Warming Amplifies Hydro-Climatic Variability
Streamflow Projections
An estimated $2.42 billion loss in crop production
in Saskatchewan 2001 and 2002 ; $5.8 billion
reduction in national GDP
Canadian Droughts of 2001 and 2002: Climatology, Impacts
and Adaptation (Wheaton et al., 2005)
The longer summer periods will result in drier soils for a longer
p, g , eriod, so while streamflows mi
ght be reduced or even increase,
water needs for agriculture will likely increase and so will pressure
for irrigation of farmland using river water. (Pomeroy et al. 2009)
Current (2206) and projected (2030) water use, SSRB
AMEC. 2009. South Saskatchewan River
Basin in Alberta: Water Supply Study. Alberta
Agriculture and Rural Development.
One of the most certain projections is that extra water will
be available in winter and spring, while summers
generally will be drier
On average, there will be slightly to significantly less surface
and soil water
North Saskatchewan River Basin Council
Source Water Protection
There are steps we can take to ensure our activities do not have
negative impacts on our water sources. Then we are not only
protecting water for ourselves and each other but for future
generations.
• W t C ti W
a
ter
Conservation
• Environmental Farm Plan
• Canada-Saskatchewan Farm Stewardship Program.
• Healthy riparian areas Healthy riparian areas
• Lakes and forests <www.nsrbc.ca>