Published: November 22, 2018
Farming Through the Change
Dave Sauchyn, PhD, PGeo
Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative (PARC), University of Regina
Water and Agriculture Conference, 22 November 2018, Crossfield, AB
The 10 warmest years since 1880:
Global temperature anomalies
October 2018 marks was the 406th consecutive month
with temperatures above the 20th century average.
Above
average
Below
average
Temperature Anomaly (
C)
www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201801
PAGES2k Consortium. 2017. A global multi-proxy database for
temperature reconstructions of the Common Era, Nature Scientific Data
The Prairies are getting less cold
Extreme cold days (- 35 C and less) are vanishing
1964-2017, Saskatoon
Source: Wittrock 2018
SRC Publication No. 10440-1E18
February 2018 SRC Climate Reference Station Annual Summary, 2017
page 15
DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES LESS THAN A SET POINT
Minus 30°C or Less
Minus 32.5°C or Less
Minus 35°C or Less
Minus 40°C or Less
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
Days
Annual 5-year running mean Trend line
0
5
10
15
20
25
1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
Days
Annual 5-year running mean Trend line
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
Days
Annual 5-year running mean Trend line
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
Days
Annual 5-year running mean Trend line
We are losing the advantage of a cold winter
“You’re lucky because you’re a northern-latitude country,
Mendelsohn says. “If you add it all up, it’s a good thing for Canada.”
Robert Mendelsohn, Yale University
For countries like Canada and Russia, though, even more dramatic
[than 2] warming wouldn’t be a problem
Benny Peiser, John Moores University (Liverpool)
“We find a significant increasing trend in the length of the growing
season and in the associated available heat. The winter
temperature is less damaging and the frost-free periods are longer.”
Qian et al. 2010
“in the case of wheat, Canada is projected by most models to replace
the former Soviet Union [by 2050] to become one of the top three
exporters in the world.”
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
The view of Canada as a cold but warming country:
Projected Climate Changes, Western Canada
1971-2000 versus 2040-2069
Temperature Change (
∘C)
Precipitation Change (%)
summer
winter
Much Warmer
and Wetter
Warmer
Possibly Drier
Source: PCIC
Crop Yield Simulations, Pincher Creek – Spring Wheat
1971-2000 2041-2070
• AquaCrop model
• RCM3_CGCM3_A2 climate projection Poudel (2016)
1971-2000 2041-2070
Poudel (2016)
• AquaCrop model
• RCM3_CGCM3_A2 climate projection
Crop Yield Simulations, Pincher Creek – Feed Barley
Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)
Bonsal et al., 2017
Barrow and Sauchyn, 2018
S/N: Temperature
S/N: Precipitation
When will we notice
climate change?
Signal: anthropogenic
warming
Noise: natural variability
GWSP Digital Water Atlas (2008); http://atlas.gwsp.org
Inter-annual variation in the
Climate Moisture Index (P-PET)
< – 0.75 – 0.75 to – 0.25 – 0.25 to 0 0 to 0.25 0.25 to 0.75 > 0.75
Pacific
Decadal
Oscillation
decadal cycle
annual cycle
trend
Bow River at Stoney Trail, Calgary
July 23-29, Aug 20 & 30
* Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index
Growing Season SPEI* near Olds, AB, 1490-2010
measured tree rings
Growing Season SPEI near Olds, AB, 1490-2010
wet year dry year
CPR
It would be almost criminal to bring settlers here to try to make a living
out of straight farming.
Our True Immigration Policy,
Medicine Hat Times, Feb 5, 1891
1901 1911 1921 1931
SK 91,279 492,432 757,510 921,785
AB 73,022 374,295 588,454 731,605
Flagstaff County Agricultural Symposium
Sedgewick, Alberta, 28 July 2012
why do keep
collecting more
wood, don’t you
have enough?
– Farmer X
Mean Water Year Flow (m3/s) South Saskatchewan River
at Medicine Hat, 1108-2010
Vulnerabilidad y Adaptación a los Extremos
Climáticos en las Américas
Principal Investigators:
Dr. Dave Sauchyn, University of Regina, Canada
Dr. Fernando Santibañez, Universidad de Chile, Santiago
Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate
Extremes in the Americas (VACEA)
Los investigadores principales
www.parc.ca/vacea/
2042 0401 0.00 16.43 -0.36
2042 0402 0.05 14.54 -0.87
2042 0403 0.37 9.23 -0.45
2042 0404 0.02 6.40 -4.91
2042 0405 0.91 7.40 -2.48
2042 0406 0.10 11.28 -2.00
2042 0407 0.07 11.16 4.02
2042 0408 0.07 12.72 0.66
2042 0409 0.01 14.99 2.27
2042 0410 1.00 13.67 2.25
2042 0411 0.55 8.79 3.37
2042 0412 0.03 9.26 -0.47
2042 0413 0.10 9.54 1.46
2042 0414 0.00 8.64 0.67
2042 0415 2.53 9.14 5.08
2042 0416 4.12 9.82 2.35
2042 0417 1.30 10.87 5.80
2042 0418 0.00 17.69 2.27
2042 0419 0.63 15.92 7.18
2042 0420 0.50 14.29 4.49
2042 0421 8.14 10.73 6.24
2042 0422 26.47 9.07 4.67
2042 0423 28.69 4.97 -0.83
2042 0424 0.06 8.30 -6.33
2042 0425 0.00 11.64 -2.28
2042 0426 0.00 10.52 -1.15
2042 0427 0.08 16.10 -1.58
2042 0428 0.07 13.21 4.85
2042 0429 2.05 9.86 2.81
2042 0430 13.76 13.30 3.46
2042 0501 0.25 15.22 3.80
2042 0502 0.00 16.74 4.96
2042 0503 0.15 18.53 8.86
2042 0504 8.11 17.37 9.07
2042 0505 0.01 10.51 3.55
2042 0506 0.42 12.04 -1.02
2042 0507 7.05 11.45 2.09
2042 0508 0.49 14.64 4.60
2042 0509 5.52 12.31 5.43
2042 0510 1.01 10.88 2.32
2042 0511 0.05 14.33 3.08
2042 0512 0.34 13.20 6.08
2042 0513 0.49 15.07 6.29
2042 0514 1.12 16.88 3.35
2042 0515 0.55 16.48 7.10
2042 0516 0.58 23.34 5.89
2042 0517 1.38 22.76 8.41
2042 0518 4.28 21.10 8.80
2042 0519 7.11 12.89 8.75
2042 0520 0.04 15.67 4.44
2042 0521 0.90 15.12 5.19
2042 0522 11.48 13.95 7.39
2042 0523 7.84 10.02 8.10
2042 0524 20.14 9.99 7.87
2042 0525 2.16 14.75 6.87
2042 0526 0.02 18.55 4.51
2042 0527 0.11 19.95 7.45
2042 0528 0.13 20.10 7.12
2042 0529 11.10 19.98 8.35
2042 0530 0.02 19.17 9.01
2042 0531 0.00 21.59 8.91
Bev and Keith Everts
I’ll believe in climate change when we get unexpected weather
– Irrigation District manager
April 21, 2015
Source: PCC, U of W
Recent Extreme Events in the Prairie Provinces
15 April 2015
“I don’t know how you plan for something that’s never
happened” Regina Leader Post, 16 April 2015
Prepare for the Extremes
Key Principles of Sustainable Agriculture and Planned Adaptation to
Climate Change
Planned Adaptation Sustainable Agriculture
Sustainable Sustainable
Engage the local community Developed by local communities
Evidence-based Science-based
A balanced / holistic approach Integrated: complement existing programs and policies
Prioritized Targeted
Flexible and adaptive Flexible and adaptive
Transparent Accountable
From: Sauchyn, D.J. Sustainable Agriculture as Adaptation to Climate
Change, Farming for Tomorrow, Spring 2016
Opportunities
• Longer growing season
• More heat units
• Increased precipitation in winter
• Less cold, more favourable winter
Challenges
• Increased variability
• More favourable climate for pests and invasive species
• Less water stored as snow
• Reoccurrence of sustained drought but in a warmer climate
For more information:
The Prairie Adaptation Research
Collaborative was established in 2000,
to provide scientific support for climate
risk analysis and adaptation planning.
www.parc.ca
sauchyn@uregina.ca
‘Normal’ Climate for Olds: Average Monthly Precipitation and
Temperature, 1961- 1990
Source: http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_normals/
Out Farm the Climate