Published: September 9, 2008
From Impacts to Adaptation: The Prairies Chapter of the
National Assessment of Climate Change
Dave Sauchyn
Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative
University of Regina
Western Boreal Growth and Yield Association
September 9, 2008, Slave Lake, AB
The Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative
is a partnership of the governments of Canada,
Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba mandated
to pursue climate change
impacts and adaptation
research in the
Prairie Provinces.
GOALS
• Highlight advances made in
understanding Canada’s
vulnerability to climate change in
past decade
• Provide a knowledge foundation
that informs adaptation decisionmaking and policy development in
a non-prescriptive manner
First national-scale assessment of climate change impacts and
adaptation in Canada since the Canada Country Study (1997)
The Assessment Report
• The process was overseen by an advisory committee
with representation from governments, academia,
Aboriginal groups and the private sector.
• 145 authors from governments, universities and
NGOs from across Canada participated, and over
3100 references were cited.
• Chapters were reviewed by 110 scientific experts and
government (Federal, Provincial/Territorial) officials.
A robust, scientific process with many partners:
The Assessment Report
FROM IMPACTS
to
Canada in a Changing Climate 2007
Synthesis Report and Highlights
MORE INFORMATION
Available on-line on March 7:
http://adaptation2007.nr
can.gc.ca
§ Download pdfs
§ Author biography
§ Order CDs
Questions? Contact us at:
adaptation@nrcan.gc.ca
Impacts of greatest concern vary between regions
Conclusions: impacts
1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Description of the Prairies Region
1.2 Environment and Economy by Ecozone
2 REGIONAL CLIMATE AND SOCIOECONOMIC
CHARACTERISTICS
2.1 Demographics
2.2 Economic Activities and Employment
2.3 Economic and Social Trends and Projections
2.4 Past Climate
2.5 Scenarios of Future Climate
3 SENSITIVITIES AND KEY VULNERABILITIES: NATURAL
CAPITAL
3.1Water Resources
3.2 Ecosystems
3.3 Soil Landscapes
Chapter 7 Prairies
4 RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES: SOCIOECONOMIC SECTORS
4.1 Agriculture
4.2 Forestry
4.3 Transportation
4.4 Communities
4.5 Health
4.6 Energy
4.7 Tourism and Recreation
5 ADAPTATION AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
5.1 Formal Institutions and Governance
5.1.1Water Resource Management
5.1.2 Ecosystem Management
5.1.3 Agriculture
5.1.4 Forestry
5.1.5 Health andWell-Being
5.2 Local Adaptation, Informal Institutions and Social Capital
6 SYNTHESIS
Paleoclimate records include longer droughts before the Prairies were settled
The recent warming exceeds the global average.
Future climates are outside the range of natural variability.
Trends in mean annual temperature since 1895 for 12 climate
stations spread across the Prairies. The average increase in mean
annual temperature for the 12 stations is 1.6°C.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
2006 Temperatures: Departures from Normal (1961-90)
Mean Annual Temperature (° C) 2049-60 versus 1961-90
CGCM3_A1B
2049-60
Projected changes in mean seasonal temperature and precipitation for the
grassland forest regions. The grey squares indicate the ‘natural’ climate
variability simulated by a long control run of the CGCM2.
We are losing the advantage of a cold winter
On average, there will be slightly to
significantly less surface and soil water
One of the most certain projections is that
extra water will be available in winter and
spring, while summers generally will be drier
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Years
Relative Levels (m)
Whitewater Lake
(MB)
Big Quill Lake (SK)
Manito Lake (SK)
Redberry Lake
(SK)
Upper Mann Lake
(AB)
Spring Lake (AB)
Little Fish Lake
(AB)
____________
Dry
Dry
Closed-basin lake level changes, 1918-2004 (van der Kamp et al.)
Alberta
Manitoba
Ontario
Montana
Saskatchewan
Idaho
British Columbia
Minnesota
North Dakota
Oregon
Washington
Wisconsin
South Dakota
Wyoming
Michigan
Saskatchewan River
Churchill River
Peace River
Red River
Lake Winnipeg
Athabasca River
Assiniboine River
Hayes River
Winnipeg River
Nelson River
Missouri River
Seal River
3
40
1
1
1
0
10
0
62
30
27
0
Boise
Helena
Regina
Calgary
Winnipeg
Edmonton
Bismarck
Saskatoon
Saint Paul
Minneapolis
Source:Non-contributing area – Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, P.F.R.A.
Elevation data – Environmental Systems Research Institute
Non-contributing drainage area (percent of total basin area) for prairie drainage basins
-median annual runoff0 50 100 200
Kilometers
Prairie Drainage Basins (source: PFRA)
South Sask River at Diefenbaker
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
current ech had ncar
climatology
modelled flows (average m3/sec)
winter
spring
summer
fall
Oldman River at Mouth
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
current ech had ncar
climatology
modelled flows (average m3/sec)
winter
spring
summer
fall
GCM %Precip +Temp
echa21 -3.8 2.8
echb21 -2.0 2.8
hada21 6.4 2.3
hadb21 0.2 2.1
ncara21 11.5 1.7
ncarb21 9.1 1.5
driest, warmest
moderately wet and warm
wettest and least warm
Bow River at Mouth Description
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
current ech had ncar
climatology
modelled flows (average m3/sec)
winter
spring
summer
fall
Seasonal flows, SSRB, 2039-2070 (Pietroniro et al., 2006)
Red Deer at Bindloss
-13%
(-32% to 13%)
South Sask at
Diefenbaker
-8.5%
(-22% to 8%)
Oldman at mouth
– 4%
(-13% to 8%)
Bow River at mouth
-10%
(-19% to 1%)
Annual flows, SSRB, 2039 – 2070 (Pietroniro et al., 2006)
Coping
Range
Climate Trends and Variability
mean conditions
departures from mean conditions
adaptation
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
1402
1422
1442
1462
1482
1502
1522
1542
1562
1582
1602
1622
1642
1662
1682
1702
1722
1742
1762
1782
1802
1822
1842
1862
1882
1902
1922
1942
1962
1982
2002
Departures from the mean
South Saskatchewan River at Medicine Hat, 1402-2004
A “myth of abundance”
and an assumption that
“the hydrological regime
is stationary and will
continue to be stationary
in the future”.
A drier past … and a drier future?
South Sask River at Diefenbaker
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
current ech had ncar
climatology
(m3/sec)
winter
spring
summer
fall
1402
1422
1442
1462
1482
1502
1522
1542
1562
1582
1602
1622
1642
1662
1682
1702
1722
1742
1762
1782
1802
1822
1842
1862
1882
1902
1922
1942
1962
1982
2002
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Departures from the mean
S. Sask R., 1400-2005
There will be greater variation in hydroclimate
Both drought and unusually wet years could
occur with greater frequency and severity
Major ecological changes are expected.
Hogg and Hurdle, 1995
The impacts of climate change will depend on how well
we adapt and how much adaptation is required
The net impacts of climate change are not clear because they depend
on rates of climate change and adaptation strategies
Adaptive Capacity
Determinant Explanation
Economic
resources
Greater economic resources increase adaptive capacity
Lack of financial resources limits adaptation options
Technology Lack of technology limits range of potential adaptation
options
Less technologically advanced regions are less likely to
develop and/or implement technological adaptations
Information and
skills
Lack of informed, skilled and trained personnel reduces
adaptive capacity
Greater access to information increases likelihood of timely
and appropriate adaptation
Infrastructure Greater variety of infrastructure can enhance adaptive
capacity, since it provides more options
Characteristics and location of infrastructure also affect
adaptive capacity
Institutions Well-developed social institutions help to reduce impacts of
climate-related risks, and therefore increase adaptive
capacity
Equity Equitable distribution of resources increases adaptive
capacity
Both availability of, and access to, resources is important
Adaptive capacity is generally high
But unevenly distributed
Most impacts are adverse because most economies
and practices are not sufficiently adaptive
Resources and communities are
sensitive to climate variability
http://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/res/em/cdd/index-eng.aspx
Canadian Disaster Database
SE
Alberta
• one-year trial, from August 2004 to July 2005, the ballbite drinker sections of the barn used 35 per cent less
water that the standard drinker sections
• no detrimental effects on the animals or facility
management
• decrease in water usage led to many secondary benefits
ball-bite drinker
standard drinker
JV Farms, High River, Alberta
Adaptation to water shortages in 2001-02, Hannah, AB
Wittrock et al. 2006
• hauling water
• shallow (seasonal) and deep (permanent) water pipelines
• access to Sheerness Power Generating Station water pipeline
• calls for second pipeline from Red Deer River
• culled and moved livestock
• careful range management
• off-farm income mostly from oil
• historic adaptation measures with establishing the Special Areas
(e.g. > 2,000 dugouts)
Planned adaptation is a component of adaptive
management and sustainable economic development
Alberta adapting to a changing climate by managing
short and long-term climate risks and opportunities
within an integrated sustainable development policy
framework.
The Alberta Vulnerability Assessment Project
is expected to result in:
Premier’s Forum on
Climate Change
June 1, 2007, Regina
Alberta Caucus, House of
Commons, March 28, 2007
Meeting the Challenge
Alberta’s Climate Change Plan
International Expert Panel
June 8, 2007
Kananaskis, Alberta