Archives: Projects

W. Ermine, D. Sauchyn, J. Pittman

ABSTRACT

This report provides an overview of the findings from the Prairie Adaptation Research Collaboration project, Nikan Oti: Future – Understanding Adaptation and Adaptive Capacity in Two First Nations. Two community case studies were undertaken with the intent of understanding adaptation and adaptive capacity and specifically how communities make adjustments to their natural or human systems that will minimize their risks and position them to take advantage of new opportunities that climate change may present. Three basic objectives guided this community case study: Understanding and enhancing adaptation and adaptive capacity in support of climate change decision making; to examine and enhance community adaptation strategies; and to enhance adjustments in human systems in response to actual changes in climate and environment. Primary research with Elders from the two communities reveals significant socio cultural changes impacting the people resulting in some degree of maladaptation as adjustments were attempted. James Smith Elders identified a catastrophic cattle die-off in their community history and the resulting introduction of the welfare system as having a domino effect that led people into dependency. The particular concerns of the Shoal Lake Elders were the changed behaviours of their youth but they also identified other issues that werea result of changing lifestyles in the community. Community resources such as philosophies, culture and a deep seated spirituality provide elements of hope that the people from both communities can facilitate adaptive strategies as the future is negotiated.

Principle Investigator: Dr. Dave Sauchyn

Co-investigators: Dr. Mark Johnston, Dr. Mary Vetter, Dr. Joseph Piwowar

PROJECT SUMMARY

The ecological gradient from grassland to forest in Canada’s western interior is a large region of national significance. It is a climatically sensitive ecotone that supports forestry and agriculture, includes various parks and protected areas, and is the location of a number of First Nations reserves. By mid-century the climate of this region is expected to have shifted from subhumid to dry subhumid with a longer and warmer growing season, possibly causing dieback of the forest, and soil moisture limitations on plant growth and productivity. These impacts have major implications for the use and management of soil, water, forest and pasture, including the capacity of current management structures and practices to sustain soil and ecosystem health. The goal of this project was to contribute to science-based decision making about adaptation to climate change in this region by providing new scientific information on the ecological response to climate variability and change at monthly to decadal time scales. This new information improves the capacity to anticipate impacts of global warming and address vulnerabilities to climate identified by stakeholders who manage the natural resources of this region.</div>

The project objectives were to

1. determine the climate sensitivity of ecosystems and soil landscapes in a major part of the Prairie Province grassland – forest transition zone

2. assess the vulnerability of soil and vegetation use and management to climate-induced ecosystem and landscape change,</div>

3. contribute to science-based decision making concerning adaptation to climate change with a focus on the forest industry and the management of parks and protected areas</div>

4. assign a quantitative degree of certainty (confidence) to our climate change and impact scenarios

The principal objective of determining the climate sensitivity of a major part of the Prairie Province grassland – forest transition zone was met and possibly exceeded in terms of the amount of new information on the historical response of vegetation to climate variables. The time series of correlated indicators of vegetation and climate inform the assessment of climate change impacts on the ecosystems of the grassland-forest transition zone. These data also can be used to calibrate models that project change in plant productivity and species distribution under climate change.

We examined the ecological response to past climate variability at various temporal scales from correlations among indicators of monthly climate and plant productivity to the variation in relative abundance of plant taxa at 5-25 year intervals for the past millennium. At the shorter time scales, temporal and spatial variations in plant productivity can be related to specific climate variables. Plant productivity depends on temperature in May but, in the rest of growing season, responds mostly to precipitation with about a one month lag. An increasing trend in July to October productivity over most of the grassland to forest transition zone suggests a lengthening of the growing season. At longer time scales, time series of pollen records from four lakes show significant fluctuations in the relative abundances of plant taxa. Much of this variability can be related to departures from mean climate conditions as inferred from tree-ring records and from the geographic distribution of modern pollen relative to climate gradients. The impact of dry years is especially apparent with substantial reductions in pollen concentrations for coniferous tree taxa, reflecting suppressed productivity. Decreased pollen outputs from these tree species is correlated with decreased lake productivity as indicated by algal pigment concentrations in the lake sediment record.

With regards to the vulnerability of vegetation use and management to climate-induced ecosystem and landscape change, we were able to satisfactorily address this objective by consulting with resource managers in the sectors of agriculture, forestry and parks and protected areas. This consultation was achieved with two workshops staged by the project and during other meetings attended by project researchers where local resource managers were in attendance. At the project workshops, stakeholders identified barriers to adaptation and adaptive management related to the uncertainty associated with conventional climate change and impact scenarios. Current projections of the ecological impacts of climate change are based on associations between current climate and the boundaries between natural regions, and on the present ranges of individual species. Shifts in the distribution of ecosystems will be driven by encroachment of species into previously unsuitable areas, for example, at the interface of grassland with parkland and forest. Resource managers need information on the trajectory that ecosystems follow in response to fluctuating and directionally-changing climate.

We were able to contribute to science-based decision making concerning adaptation to climate change to the extent that project researchers presented the results of our researchat the two stakeholder workshops and at other conference and workshops on the topic of climate change impacts and adaptation in western Canada. The degree to which this knowledge transfer influenced decision making is difficult to assess. We expect that more knowledge translation and interaction with stakeholders will be required to have a meaningful influence on the planning of adaptation to climate change. But a general indication of the perceived value of this research is shown in the development of new funding applications in collaboration with stakeholders and First Nations groups.

The final objective of assigning a degree of certainty (confidence) to our climate change and impact scenarios was achieved in terms of having a better understanding of the climate sensitivity of the ecosystems of the forest – grassland transition zone. We have yet to meet this objective, however, in terms of producing a more robust assessment of climate impacts, because the components of the project have not yet been fully integrated. We intend to pursue this full integration of the project components and deliver improved assessments of the ecological impacts of climate change to project partners and stakeholders.

W. Ermine, D. Sauchyn, M. Vetter, C. Hart

PROJECT SUMMARY

The purpose of the research is to assess the future impacts of climate change and the capacity for two First Nation communities in Saskatchewan to respond and adapt to those impacts.

This report provides an overview of the findings from the Prairie Adaptation Research Collaboration project, Isi Wipan – Climate: Identifying the impacts of climate change and capacity for adaptation in two Saskatchewan First Nation communities. Two community case studies were undertaken with attention given to the integrated and interconnected impacts of climate change across various sectors. A holistic framework was used that emphasizes the interconnections between the social, cultural and natural systems. Scientific data on paleoclimate and paleovegetation for the eco region encompassing these two communities is provided. Additionally, Elders from the James Smith and Shoal Lake Cree Nations came together in their respective communities to discuss impacts from climate and environmental changes on the health of their populations. The two Elder forums, or focus groups held in each community, were based on respectful learning and traditional protocols in which Elders share information about climate change with one another and with members of the scientific community. Four basic objectives guided this community case study: To identify what the Elders have experienced in terms of climate and environmental change as suggested by traditions and oral histories; How the changes in the climate and environment impact the health of community members, recognizing that the natural environment is one of the key determinants of health (with health defined as encompassing physical, mental, emotional and spiritual components); For Elders to communicate what features or resources of the traditional territory are highly valued, and to what degree these features or resources at risk to climate and environmental change in their territories; and to identify what enables or constraints communities to adapt to changes. The Elder discussions in response to these questions are identified and discussed in this paper.

A number of broad themes emerged from the discussions that indicate how the social, economic and cultural systems were impacted by changes and how the people from both communities demonstrate qualities of resilience, stability and flexibility in the face of changes that were taking place around them.

Willie Ermine, Ralph Nilson, Dave Sauchyn, Ernest Sauve, Robin Yvonne Smith

PROJECT SUMMARY

This report provides an overview of the findings from the Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative project, Isi Askiwan – The State of the Land: Prince Albert Grand Council Elders Forum on Climate Change. First Nations perspectives about the natural world can enhance western scientific research and understanding of the impacts of climate change on quality of life and community health. Elders and other First Nations knowledge holders from the Prince Albert Grand Council area in Saskatchewan came together to discuss the impacts of climate change on population health within their traditional territories. The Elders’ forum was based on respectful learning and traditional protocols in which Elders could share information about climate change with one another and with members of the scientific community. Three basic objectives guided the Elders’ discussion: To identify what has been experienced or observed by the Elders in regards to climate change; to identify the impacts of these changes on the health and quality of life of Aboriginal communities; and for the Elders to communicate the capacity of communities in adapting to these changes, both in the past and in the future. Elder responses to this issue are identified and discussed in this report, along with a number of broad themes such as the connection between the natural and social environment, and the conciliation of Elder knowledge and western scientific perspectives on climate change. This information is placed within the broader context of the growing literature on traditional environmental knowledge. To date, discussions of this kind have been dominated by western science. By engaging in these issues, Aboriginal communities, under the leadership of Elders, have the opportunity to contribute knowledge to the broader Canadian society concerning alternative approaches to climate change,and in particular to the relationship between health and the natural environment.

Norman Henderson, Edward Hogg, Elaine Barrow, and Brett Dolter

PROJECT SUMMARY

This study investigates future climate change impacts on ecosystems, with a focus on trees, in 5 island forest sites in the northern Great Plains ecoregion: Sweet Grass Hills (Montana), Cypress Hills (Alberta-Saskatchewan), Moose Mountain (Saskatchewan), Spruce Woods (Manitoba) and Turtle Mountain (Manitoba-North Dakota). The sites are relatively small forests, isolated from other woodlands by intervening grassland. They have high nature conservation, recreational and cultural value. Their smallness, isolation, restricted number of keystone species and ecotone nature make the island forests very vulnerable to climate change.

Using 3 different global climate models (GCMs) incorporating the latest emissions scenarios we construct climate scenarios for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s according to standard Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines. From these scenarios we derive climate moisture indices (CMIs based on projected precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration to model available moisture for vegetation growth. All GCM scenarios indicated declines in moisture levels over time. As compared to the climate normals (the baseline climate) of 1961-1990, the predicted decline in moisture availability at the 5 island forests is approximately 10 cm by the 2020s, 21 cm by the 2050s, and 32 cm by the 2080s. As moisture availability is a critical determinant of forest structure and heal that Plains forest sites, the loss of such substantial amounts of moisture is expected to have severe impacts, including the conversion of large areas of forest from trees to scrub or grass cover, the possible extirpation of some tree species, and negative impacts on biodiversity, landscape diversity, and recreational and cultural values. Landscape change maybe sudden and dramatic, via vectors such as wildfire, insect attack or severe drought. Traditional minimal-intervention management will not prevent loss of diversity and risks catastrophic and permanent landscape change. Management that aims simplyto retain existing vegetation, or to restore historical vegetation distributions and ecosystems, will fail as the climate steadily moves farther away from recent and current norms. A realistic biodiversity strategy must take into account that climate, and therefore flora, fauna, hydrology and soils, will not be static over this century. In a world of climate change, selection of protected areas may need to focus on site heterogeneity and habitat diversity (as these provide some buffer against climate change) rather than on representativeness. As well, preserving some elements of biodiversity will require increasing management counter-intervention across the landscape. Climate change is not currently considered within management plans at any of our study sites.

Given the island forests’ vulnerability and the magnitude of probable climate change impacts, we recommend an interim strategy of “managed retreat,” incorporating active, anticipatory management, as the best risk management approach. Elements of this “no regrets” strategy include aggressively controlling wildfires and other disturbances, maintaining or creating successional stand diversity, maintaining or increasing landscape diversity, and aiding regeneration of key extant species. It mayalso be necessary to introduce more drought-tolerant varieties of existing species and, in extremis, to introduce entirely new species should a key extant species prove unsustainable as the climate shifts. As the forests are isolated, in-migration of tree species or varieties better adapted to the changing climate would have to be provided by active management. Provenance trials should be undertaken to test new tree varieties and species to provide us with maximum options for ecological salvage. Zoning within each island forest will be a valuable technique allowing a differentiated response to climate change. As the management response to climate change may have to be radical compared with traditional North American nature conservation practice, extensive public consultation will be required. A binational biophysical monitoring program that looks at the entire Plains island forest archipelago collectively, rather than at each site in isolation, is strongly recommended. Also recommended is the expansion of this study north and south to encompass all island forests within the Great Plains ecoregion to determine the bounds of probable climate change, to determine island forests’ individual and collective vulnerability, and to foster knowledge transfer of best monitoring, management and consultations practice.

D.T. Price, R. Hall, F. Raulier, M. Lindner, B. Case, P. Bernier

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Given that some impacts of climate warming are being observed across Canada (the current drought in Alberta and Saskatchewan being only one example), and that climate model projections indicate larger, systematic changes occurring within the next 50-100 years, sustainable management of Canada’s forest resources will need to take the effects of such changes into account. The most immediately observable impacts are likely to be changes in species productivity, competition and survival. Estimating these impacts will be critical for the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies.

This project attempts to assess these potential impacts on western boreal forest ecosystems using a suite of process models applied to detailed spatial data sets. In principle, the models must first be calibrated and tested by running them with data representative of current climate conditions for the study area. Only when this has been achieved with acceptable results should the effects of possible future climates be investigated using scenario data (ideally derived from global climate model simulations).

Current models of stand productivity generally employ traditional growth and yield (G&Y) modeling based on plot-level measurements of tree growth. Because local climate is a major determinant of environmental conditions at all forest sites, yield forecasts based on such models are likely to be inaccurate if appreciable changes in climate do occur. In the worst cases, the predictions of future yield could be completely incorrect. An alternative approach is to develop process-based growth models that use physiological and physical principles to relate stand growth to climate. The Canadian Forest Service’s Laurentian Forestry Centre (LFC) is at the forefront in developing and testing this approach. LFC is leading a project termed ECOLEAP (Extended COllaboration for Linking Ecophysiology And Forest Productivity) (http://www.cfl.forestry.ca/ECOLEAP), in which forest net primary productivity (NPP) issimulated mechanistically, and then mapped at the landscape scale using spatial data.

The project reported here, and referred to as ECOLEAP-West, builds on this initiative for two ecologically-distinct study regions within Alberta and Saskatchewan, respectively. Process-based models to estimate NPP were driven by spatial data sets including digital elevation, soils, satellite remote sensing, and interpolated climate. These NPP estimates were then compared to site-level productivity estimates derived from field measurements at permanent sample plots inthe Foothills Model Forest (FMF) study area in Alberta. The aim was to establish an acceptable level of agreement between the different estimates of NPP, and then apply the process-based models to the Saskatchewan study region. The end products should include tools to assess forest productivity under both present-day and plausible future climates, and to investigate the effects of forest management options to adapt to climate change. Preliminary results indicate that forest management can have significant effects on productivity, species composition and carbon sequestration.

G.H. Huang, Z. Chen, L. Liu, Y.F. Huang, J.B. Li, Z.Y. Hu, I. Maqsood, Y.Y. Yin

PROJECT SUMMARY

Petroleum operations range from exploration, production and refining to transportation and storage. Climate change will lead to a number of direct and indirect impacts on this industrial sector. Therefore, a challenging question faced by the industry is how they should adapt to the changing climatic conditions in order to maintain or improve their economic and environmental efficiencies. In this research, initial efforts are made to assess the interrelationships between climate change and petroleum activities in Canada’s prairies. A number of processes within the prairies’ petroleum industry that are vulnerable to climate change are examined through extensive survey, investigation and analysis. In addition to the organization of workshops, roundtable meetings and panel discussions, many questions were designed and distributed in various ways (mail, email, telephone call, interview, and internet) to collect information of perceived climate-change impacts and adaptation strategies. Many people from industries, research institutions, governments, and non-governmental organizations were contacted for information and knowledge acquisition. Multivariate statistical analyses (chi square test) were conducted to examine potential correlations among various surveying results. These analyses were helpful for identifying potential conflicts of interest, biases and interactions. Thus, more reasonable interpretation of the surveying outputs can be obtained. Based on the investigation and surveying results, an expert system (named ISSCCI) was developed for facilitating integrated climate-change impact assessment and adaptation-strategy analysis within the prairie’s petroleum industry. A vast amount of information related to industrial processes, climate-change impacts, potential adaptation alternatives, and system component interactions was integrated within the ISSCCI framework. The developed ISSCCI can provide decision support for the prairie’s energy industries and the related governmental organizations to conveniently examine issues of climate-change impacts and potential adaptation options.

Adam M. Wellstead, Debra J. Davidson, Richard C. Stedman

PROJECT SUMMARY

This report provides an overview of findings from the Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative project, Assessing the Potential for Policy Responses to Climate Change. The authors use a number of social science methods to examine the policy making process in the Prairie agriculture, forestry, and water sectors. A web-based survey of 800 decision-makers examined their policy belief structure, their attitudes towards climate change issues and risk, and their network structures. The results reveal that competing policy belief structures do exist and may prove important in determining the future direction of climate change policies.

A report to the Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative Climate Change Action Fund

R.D.H Cohen, C.D. Sykes, E.E. Wheaton and J.P. Stevens

ABSTRACT

An understanding of adaptation of plant and animal systems in response to changes in climate will help to reduce the risk involved in livestock production. Climate change will affect a large array of systems. Forage and livestock production will not be excluded from the impact of climate change. The purpose of this study was to understand the concept of adaptation and to integrate adaptive management strategies within the beef industry. A case study was undertaken at three locations to determine the impact of climate change as predicted by the CGCM1 model on livestock production. Three adaptation strategies were devised namely an early turnout date, intensive early season grazing and an extended grazing season. These were applied to simulation for the years 2051-2090. The results should only be considered as only an example of the possible responses to climate change.

A climate change scenario was created using the Canadian Climate Change model (GCM1) and integrated into the GrassGro Decision Support System (DSS). Three adaptation strategies were tested in comparison to a baseline simulation (1961-1990) for 2 pasture associations, Russian wildrye/alfalfa (RWR/ALF) and Crested Wheatgrass (CWG) at three locations Melfort, Saskatoon, Swift Current, Saskatchewan. Climate change predictions were simulated for the years 2051-2080.The effects of climate change on livestock production were complex and results were variable for each site. The effects were more prominent at Saskatoon than Melfort and Swift Current, reflecting strong regional specificity and variability.The adaptation strategies were more successful for RWR/ALF than for CWG pasture at Melfort and Swift Current while CWG appeared to be more successful at Saskatoon. Indeed, the results suggest that productivity of beef cattle grazing RWR/ALF pastures at Melfort and Swift Current could be enhanced with climate change. However, Russian wild ryegrass is slow and difficult to establish. Therefore one of the recommendations from this report calls for a greater research effort into the establishment problems of this grass.

Dr. David Sauchyn

PROJECT SUMMARY